An Excess of 2,700 Doctors in 2012

The number of doctors exceeding demand is likely to reach the level of 2,700 by the year 2012. In terms of dentists, the number will be 3,800 while 400 Korean oriental medical practioners are expected to be superfluous.
The Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs(KIHASA) released these calculations on April 30 in its report titled 'Future prospect on supply and demand of medical personnel and policy task'.
According to the report, the number of doctors will reach 65,500 in 2002, 77,000 in 2007 and 88,700 in 2012.
The projected demand for doctors will be 68,500 in 2002 and 86,000 in 2012 on the condition of one doctor examining 34.6 to 35.8 patients a day and he or she works 255 days a year, KIHASA analyzed.
As a result, from the year 2008 a supply surplus phenomenon will appear and 2,700 doctors will not be needed. This is the reverse of 2002 when 3,000 more doctors will be needed.
The number of doctors per 100,000 population will increase to 174 from 1997's 119.
The entrance quota of the nation's 41 medical schools totaled 3,300, an increase of 29 percent from 1981.
Jooan Kang : jooan@joongang.co.kr