Election Outcome Defies Exit Poll Predictions

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Election Outcome Defies Exit Poll Predictions

Exit opinion polls conducted by the three Korean broadcasting stations all showed major errors in their predictions. It was the first time exit polls had been conducted in Korean election history.

The final results of the ballot count at 0:40a.m. on March 14 gave 109 seats to the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and 97 seats to the ruling Millennium Democratic Party (MDP). However, the exit polls conducted jointly by KBS and SBS indicated 107 seats for the MDP and 99 seats for the GNP. Polls by MBC and Gallup also erroneously predicted that the GNP would win 100 seats and the MDP 107 seats. These polls all suggested that the GNP would be defeated by the MDP - proving to be crucially inaccurate.

Officials from the three broadcasting stations were embarrassed by the inaccuracy of their exit polls. A source from MBC said, "This is a reliving of the nightmare of the 1996 general election, where opinion polls were out by 37 seats. Who can depend upon opinion polls now?"

This phenomenon seems to have been caused by the large number of hotly contested districts, where parties were separated in support by less than 1 percent.

The outcome of the exit polls has triggered public criticism of press sensationalism and irresponsibility with regard to ballot results.

The exit polls began to prove unreliable from the beginning of the ballot count. Predictions of candidate victory made by KBS-SBS and MBC differed from the actual results in as many as 20 districts.

The polling organizations blame the voters. Gallup director Park Moo-ik said, "The rate of response for women over 50 nationwide was close to zero. And voters in Cholla Province and Kyongsang Province in particular lied to the pollsters."

Nonetheless, the outcome of these exit polls is likely to raise the issue of responsibility between broadcasting stations and polling organizations. In preparation for this contingency, KBS and SBS had already made contracts with the polling organizations to pay penalties of $9,000 per district in the case of exit poll error. In contrast, MBC and Gallup had agreed not to wrangle over responsibility for inaccurate results.




by Kim Haing

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