Poor North-South ties forecast

BEIJING － North Korean leader Kim Jong-il shows no signs of visiting Seoul for a second inter-Korean summit, a columnist wrote in the state-run China Daily, the sole English newspaper published in China. The column is an about-face from the newspaper's recent emphasis on the sunnier side of North-South Korean relations.

The column said the development of bilateral relations between North and South Korea in 2001 was not as remarkable as in 2000.

It added that the Bush administration's hard-line stance toward Pyeongyang and the North's grudge over Seoul's heightened security alerts after the Sept. 11 terror attacks contributed to the lack of progress. The columnist said, "The current domestic situation Kim Dae-jung has to confront is not as permissive as it was when he first became president."

The column cited three obvious reasons why the North Korean leader's visit to Seoul is not likely. First, Pyeongyang will focus on building its economy this year as indicated in an editorial issued by the North's Rodong Sinmun newspaper. Second, President Kim Dae-jung, whose term is in its final year, will be unable to tackle all the substantial developments in politics, economy and military affairs. Therefore, a "wait-and-see policy" would be best if Pyeongyang wants to promote ties with Seoul when a new South Korean president takes office in early 2003.

The column pointed out that the United States is focusing its efforts on its war against terror. Washington "will not be able to readjust its North Korean policy," which will lead to continued deadlock in U.S.-North Korea relations and will have a negative impact on inter-Korean relations, the columnist wrote.

The North's about-face in the sixth ministerial talks held at Mount Geumgang in November "can be interpreted as its indignation over the Bush administration's tough tack toward Pyeongyang and its dissatisfaction over Seoul being at Washington's beck and call."

by You Sang-chul