Political oracles cloudy after Park quits her party

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Political oracles cloudy after Park quits her party

Political strategists of all stripes were busy Friday trying to figure out how Representative Park Geun-hye's bolt from the main opposition Grand National Party would affect the political landscape in what is expected to be a heated presidential election in December.

The withdrawal of Ms. Park, 50, the eldest daughter of former President Park Chung Hee, was received favorably in a telephone survey done by the JoongAng Ilbo of 958 voters nationwide. Ms. Park did well to resign, 58. 4 percent responded; 41.6 percent disagreed. The result suggested to some analysts that she could be a force to reckon with.

The poll also matched Ms. Park against the Grand National president, Lee Hoi-chang and any potential Millennium Democratic candidate in a presidential trial heat. She finished second to Mr. Lee with 26.6 percent, but what intrigued political analysts was that her support was fairly consistent throughout the country, with a low of 19 percent in Seoul and a high of 33 percent in Gyeonggi province.

An evening daily, the Munhwa Ilbo, reported Friday that the Grand National Party's mainstreamers had forced Ms. Park out, quoting a party legislator, Representative Kim Deog-ryong. Mr. Kim added that he, too, was weighing whether to remain in the party.

As the party's former vice president, Representative Park, 50, had stood up to Mr. Lee on various issues, not least when she challenged his presidential bid by declaring her own interest in the presidency.

Rhee In-je, considered the front-runner for the nomination of the ruling Millennium Democratic Party dismissed the idea that Ms. Park's exit might have any effect on his presidential bid.

"The Millennium Democratic Party's nomination process has begun; therefore, it will not be affected by Representative Park's exit from the Grand National Party," said Mr. Rhee, 54.

If anybody can calculate scenarios involving party desertion, Mr. Rhee should be able to. He defected from the predecessor of the Grand National Party, then the ruling party, in 1997, and his presidential run that year siphoned off nearly 5 million votes, tipping the race from Mr. Lee to Kim Dae-jung.

The JoongAng Ilbo poll turned up one other interesting fact. Asked which party they favored, 26.1 percent chose the Grand National, 21.4 percent the Millennium Democratic and 1.4 percent the United Liberal Democrats. But 50 percent favored no party, up from 44.1 percent in a similar poll just three months ago.

by Ahn Boo-keun

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