A vote based on the issues

The presidential campaign began unofficially last month with the start of the party primaries. It entered another phase Sunday as Roh Moo-hyun became the ruling party's nominee with his victory in the Seoul balloting.

Lee Hoi-chang continued his winning streak over the weekend in the opposition Grand National Party's primary vote in Changwon. His lead and momentum appear insurmountable.

The unexpected win in the MDP primaries by Mr. Roh has added a twist to the election, and experts said how each candidate handles a number of sensitive issues, rather than regional party loyalties, will determine the outcome.

Neither candidate is affiliated with their parties' traditional regional power bases. While the MDP's support is drawn mostly from the Jeolla provinces, Mr. Roh's is from Busan in South Gyeongsang province. The Gyeongsang provinces are the traditional stronghold of Mr. Lee's GNP, but he was born in South Chungcheong province.

Experts say there are many obstacles for Mr. Roh to overcome in the eight months before the presidential vote. The first is the June 13 local elections. Mr. Roh has promised to place three mayors in Daejeon, Daegu and Busan and two party members as governors of the Gyeongsang provinces. If the local elections go as Mr. Roh hopes the GNP would lose most of its support in the southern part of the peninsula.

The mayoral races in Seoul and Incheon and for governor of Gyeonggi province are other variables that will affect the presidential election. The wealthy and populous capital region will weigh in heavily at the ballot box in December.

Mr. Roh's relationship with President Kim Dae-jung could be another unknown. The opposition party has already attacked him as a Gyeongsang version of President Kim and will continue to try and link him to allegations of corruption withing the president's administration.

The alleged involvement of Mr. Kim's three sons in several bribery scandals will make it much harder for Mr. Roh to shake the image of corruption. Mr. Roh is also trying to cast the party as a true national party, instead of a provincial party.

by Kim Chong-hyuk