North ties are at crossroads

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North ties are at crossroads

The Korean Peninsula is embroiled in turmoil in the aftermath of Saturday's deadly inter-Korean naval clash. The two Koreas are now facing each other in the worst climate in recent memory as U.S.-North Korea talks finally fell apart Wednesday.

It will be difficult to resume inter-Korean and Washington-Pyeongyang relations. Public sentiment in the South toward the North rapidly chilled, and hard-liners in both Washington and Pyeongyang may collide in the possible process of rescheduling their halted talks. A dark cloud also hovers over North Korea-Japan relations. Although the two sides still have a plan for Red Cross talks, Japan has already begun salvage work to raise a mystery ship -- believed to be a North Korean spy boat -- to confirm where the ship originated. If the investigation reveals that the boat is from the North, Japanese conservatives will probably propose sanctions against the North.

During the April visit of Lim Dong-won, South Korean presidential envoy to the North, Pyeongyang said it wanted amicable relations with Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. But dialogue with Tokyo appears in danger. The Two Koreas have held working-level talks repeatedly, but they failed to open a hot-line, necessary for crisis management. And although the New York channel between Washington and Pyeongyang is still open, it is nothing more than a liaison point.

While the situation on the peninsula looks bleak, it is unlikely it will deteriorate into a crisis. At the Kim-Bush summit in March, South Korea and the United States agreed to resolve problems with the North through talks, and that policy is still in force. "Washington and Seoul may differ in their views toward North Korea, but the framework of resolving North Korea issues agreed between Mr. Kim and Mr. Bush is still valid," a Seoul official said.

Observers also believe that North Korea will restrain itself from additional provocation; the North has been sending olive branches through its civilian channels.

There are still two factors that may change the atmosphere on the peninsula. One is the North's intention behind the Saturday's provocation. If the North Korean leadership approved of the clash, the hawks in Washington may want to punish Pyeongyang. The other is the U.S. stance on the North's nuclear facilities. If Washington pushes for inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the weather could turn stormy in a hurry.

by Oh Young-hwan

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