GNP has big lead in pre-election poll

Candidates of the opposition Grand National Party would win a sweeping victory in seven Seoul-area districts in in the Aug. 8 by-elections were the elections held now, according to a JoongAng Ilbo survey. Pollsters spoke to 4,996 eligible voters at seven election districts at Seoul and Gyeonggi province from Wednesday to Saturday. The poll's margin of error is 3.7 percent in each of the seven districts. Thirteen new legislators will be selected in the elections; the poll included only seats being contested in the Seoul area.

Park Jin, the GNP candidate in Seoul's Jongno district received 32 percent support, followed by Yoo Ihn-tae of the Millennium Democratic Party (21 percent) and independent Jeong Heung-jin (12 percent).

In a two-way race in the Yeongdeungpo B district, the GNP's Kwon Yeong-se leads his MDP rival, Chang Ki-pyo, 25 percent to 19 percent. In Geumcheon district, 39 percent of those polled said they support the GNP candidate, Lee Woo-jae; 11 percent favor Lee Mok-hui of the MDP.

More than 47 percent of the voters in the West Incheon and Ganghwa B districts said they favored the GNP candidate Lee Kyung-jae; only 9 percent opted for his rival, Shin Dong-geun of the MDP.

The poll also suggested that GNP candidates in the three election districts of Gyangmyeong, Hanam and Anseong, all in in Gyeonggi province, would probably defeat their MDP rivals at a large margin.

But analysts said the races cannot be called that easily, because 39 percent of the respondents overall were still undecided. The opposition GNP, which holds the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, has drawn most of the supporters of the small United Liberal Democrats, who are not fielding candidates in any of the elections, including those outside the Seoul metropolitan area.

But the leads now held by GNP candidates in the Jongno and Geumcheon election districts could increase if the independent candidates there drop out. They are disaffected former MDP members who, denied their party's nominations, decided to run as independents.

Pollsters said that MDP candidates lost more ground against their GNP rivals among respondents who say they are certain to vote. Among those self-described committed voters, an average 36 percent in each district said they supported the GNP while only 15 percent favored the MDP.

Most respondents said they were more interested in fresh candidates with integrity than in party affiliation.

by Ahn Boo-keun