Ships, soccer and politics: Recipe for Chung presidency is untested

With the presidential election only four months away, independent lawmaker Chung Mong-joon is a wild card in the election equation. His sudden rise to stardom, to his fans, is akin to the emergence from nowhere of Roh Moo-hyun of the Millennium Democratic Party, and presents a challenge both to Mr. Roh and to the Grand National Party presidential candidate, Lee Hoi-chang. The MDP, trying to overhaul its bad image by distancing itself from President Kim Dae-jung by organizing a new party, wants Mr. Chung to join that new party. The GNP, secure in its candidate, is busy collecting information on Mr. Chung for use if he does enter the race.

Mr. Chung was born to privilege; he is the sixth son of Chung Ju-yung, who founded the Hyundai group, one of the largest Korean conglomerates. He received a Ph.D. in international politics at Johns Hopkins University and now heads of Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world's largest shipmaker. Mr. Chung served as president of the Korean Football Association and vice-chairman of FIFA, the governing body of international soccer. He was elected a lawmaker from Ulsan in 1988 and has kept his seat since then.

Mr. Chung has not yet made any commitment to run for president but he announced Monday that he is thinking hard about it. He added on Tuesday that he would not throw his hat in the ring to represent a new party that is likely to be formed from the remnants of the Millennium Democratic Party if Mr. Roh, who won Korea's first primary elections earlier this year to get the MDP nod, is forced to compete again to represent the new party.

But some MDP strategists see his participation in a runoff election as a wonderful drawing card. More coldly, however, his base in the Millennium Democratic party is weak, and some of Mr. Roh's supporters scoff that Mr. Chung will not join the new party unless his nomination is guaranteed.

Mr. Chung said Monday that he is examining whether an independent politician has a realistic shot at winning a presidential election. If he decides on an independent bid the race would be at least a three-way contest, and a recent Joong-Ang Ilbo poll suggests that he would fare worse in such a contest rather than in a head-to-head contest with Mr. Lee of the GNP. Many political observers are dismissive of the possibility that an independent campaign could succeed. Some predict that Mr. Chung might bide his time, join one of the parties after this election and run for the presidency in five years.

Mr. Chung's popularity rose after the Korean national soccer team made it to the semifinals at the World Cup tournament. As president of the Korea Football Association, Mr. Chung oversaw Korea's hosting of the tournament, widely considered to have been a logistical as well as a sports success. Despite skepticism that soccer and politics mix, the World Cup stirred up a sense of patriotism in many Koreans and made him a household name.

Many pollsters said Mr. Chung's chiseled features appeal to the housewives of the Ulsan district, where he has had no serious challengers for his seat.

By distancing himself from politics during the June 13 local elections and the Aug. 8 by-elections, Mr. Chung preserved his fresh image, one political analyst said. He also has distanced himself from labor-management relations at Hyundai Heavy Industries, where he is the largest shareholder.

Voters also seem to regard highly his activities as the vice-chairman of FIFA that take him abroad frequently and allow him to mingle with other high-profile figures around the world.

But he has his weaknesses, skeptics point out.

As the largest shareholder and CEO of Hyundai Heavy Industries, Mr. Chung is likely to confront the same difficulties that dogged his father, Chung Ju-yung, when he ran for the presidency in 1992. Many observers say that Korean populism will prevent a rich man from becoming president. After losing the 1992 election, the elder Chung was criticized for allegedly forcing Hyundai workers and employees of contractors to join his United Peoples Party.

Mr. Chung's bid for the presidency could also harm his company because of the heavy hand of government in the economy and the possibility of vengeful politicians taking their revenge if he were defeated. For that reason, his brothers and relatives who are large shareholders of Hyundai affiliates are unhappy with his political ambitions. Some observers question Mr. Chung's national leadership abilities and come back to his relative lack of legislative influence or any track record in sectors outside of sports. Opponents could also use the 50-billion-won rise in his holdings this year to question how he did so well in a faltering economy. A GNP lawmaker, Kim Moon-soo, said that Mr. Chung might not be a more serious political threat than Mr. Roh because of Korean antipathy towards conglomerates, and some MDP members said his popularity could fade quickly under close scrutiny. A university professor and close associate said Mr. Chung has too much to lose if he fails in a presidential bid.

by Choi Hoon, Kim Sung-tak