Race rated too close to predict

South Korean voters will head to 13,471 polling places today to select Korea's 16th president. The election results will be clear by 9 p.m., the National Election Commission said. Polling places will be open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., after which ballot counting will begin.

On the eve of the election, Chung Mong-joon, the chairman of the National Alliance 21, who stepped out of the race to endorse Roh Moo-hyun of the Millennium Democratic Party, repudiated his pledges to support Mr. Roh. Kim Haeng, the party spokeswoman, said that Mr. Roh's address to a crowd in central Seoul yesterday, in which he said that the South would be embroiled in a fight between the United States and the North, runs counter to the terms of alliance.

National Alliance associates said that the party has been insulted by Mr. Roh's statement hailing MDP lawmakers Chung Dong-young and Choo Mi-ae as the next-generation leaders.

Election experts said the race is too close to call, with Mr. Roh holding a narrow lead over the Grand National Party's Lee Hoi-chang. The other candidates are Kwon Young-ghil of the Democratic Labor Party, Lee Han-dong of the Hanaro National Union, Kim Young-gyu of the Socialist Party of Korea and Kim Gil-su of the Hoguk Party. Chang Se-dong, an independent candidate and former intelligence chief, pulled out of the race yesterday.

The Election Commission predicted that 80 percent of the 35 million eligible Koreans will vote. Turnout was 82 percent in the 1992 election, and 81 percent in 1997. Minor candidates are expected to win 5 percent support overall, meaning that 13.5 million votes, roughly half the valid ballots, would insure victory. Past winners have taken from 37 percent to 42 percent in three- or four-horse races.

The front-runners campaigned feverishly yesterday. Lee Hoi-chang urged voters to cast a verdict on the Kim Dae-jung administration that he said has impaired state administration and was a sink of government corruption. "I will reveal the truth about past corruption if I become president, but out of a spirit of tolerance, I will let the people judge whether to punish them," Mr. Lee said.

Mr. Roh said, "The liquidation of the old politics and the commencement of the new politics is as good as settled." He promised a politics that strengthens popular participation, unifies the people and fosters confidence in the harmony of principles and common sense, and is transparent.

Mr. Roh campaigned at 15 spots in Seoul yesterday. He forecast that those who tried to take advantage of regional conflict and rely on negative campaigning will be ignored by the people in this election. He also denied charges raised by the opposition that the government bribed North Korea to secure the historic inter-Korean summit.

Nam Kyung-pil, spokesman of the GNP, said Mr. Roh's Tuesday pledge to overhaul his party was a campaign "lip service." He said Mr. Roh, who understands Korean history as class struggle, cannot achieve national solidarity.

Chyung Dai-chul, head of the MDP election commission, accused the opposition party of bribing voters and asserted that Korea needs a dynamic leader standing shoulder to shoulder with foreign leaders in their 50s and 40s. (Mr. Lee is 67, Mr. Roh 56.) Lee Nak-yon, spokesman of the MPD, charged that GNP local chapters were each provided with 100 million won ($83,000) to bribe voters and called for an election commission crackdown on illegal campaigning.

The major parties differed in their assessments of how battleground regions will vote. The GNP asserted that Mr. Roh will win less than 30 percent support in its traditional strongholds of Busan and South Gyeongsang province, while the MDP has set its sights on 40 percent. The traditional swing region of the Chungcheong provinces is still up for grabs, as are Seoul and Gyeonggi province, where 45 percent of the voters are concentrated.

by Lee Sang-il