Geopolitical twists work against North

Seoul officials and analysts noted considerable differences in Pyeongyang's declaration yesterday that it would withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and a similar vow in 1993 that was later suspended.

The geopolitical backdrop to the two threats is different. In 1993, the United States was in a position to try to stop a North Korean withdrawal from the treaty at all cost. The nonproliferation treaty was created in 1970, and was to face a review in 1995 to decide whether to keep it or not. For Washington, abolishing the treaty would have meant the breakup of the world's only comprehensive regime limiting the spread of nuclear arms. Non-nuclear nations would be free to start development programs, posing an uncertain but ominous strategic threat to the United States.

The nuclear tension on the Korean Peninsula in 1993 coincided with growing discontent among some non-nuclear nations with allowing existing nuclear powers to maintain their programs and arsenals. North Korea's threat to back out of the pact fueled that sentiment. That is one reason, experts said, the United States entered into negotiations for the Agreed Framework, which provided civilian energy aid to the North in return for a pledge to end a nuclear development program.

The nonproliferation treaty is now entrenched, and after the Sept. 11 terror attacks the United States is more likely, experts said, to seek sanctions to punish Pyeongyang if it pulls out of the agreement.

by Kim Min-seok