The Future of United Korea

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The Future of United Korea

Some Koreans will say their country’s history stretches back 5,000 years. Others say Korea has actually existed from the time of the Silla Kingdom, 1,400 years ago. Whatever the number, one Korea, not two, has been the normal state of affairs for a long time. Through the centuries of feudalism and all-powerful emperors and through decades under the colonial thumb of Japan, geography and blood have bound Korea and its people together. The current division of the Korean Peninsula is thus an oddity. Beyond the unhealed wounds of the Korean War and the cavernous divide in ideology between North and South, it is clear to most fair-minded observers that the two Koreas will be reunited one day. There is a national imperative. This aspiration for unity is perhaps most easily seen over the last four years in the heartrending reunions of the families torn apart for two generations by the Korean War. The JoongAng Daily to celebrate its fourth anniversary has sought out the best-informed scholars and commentators to explore deceptively simple questions: What sort of country will a unified Korea be? What role will the united country play in the world? Our chief assumptions are that the two countries will eventually join peacefully, that the failed communist economy of the North will evolve into a market-oriented system, and that 70 million Koreans working together will be a source of enormous vitality. The challenges are obvious, but to underestimate the Korean people would be to ignore their history. They know and accept that a unified country will be a stronger place. We hope our anniversary’s special section stimulates some thought about the hopes and dreams of generations to come. A place in the world When talk turns to a unified Korea, the conventional wisdom is that the country’s neighbors and allies ― chiefly China, Japan and the United States ― like things the way they have been for the last 50 years. Simply put, the argument is two Koreas are weaker than one and so they are easier to deal with. For China, North Korea has been a welcome buffer zone, keeping at bay the U.S. troops on the peninsula and perceived dangers from the South’s capitalist economy. Japan has been happy because it does not want another powerful rival in the region. A unified Korea would become economically stronger, blending the South’s skills and the North’s cheap labor. A divided Korea has also been viewed as benefiting the strategic interests of the United States by providing a reliable base for its forces in the Northeast Asia. On the periphery is Russia, which until the breakup of the Soviet Union used North Korea as a client state. Today’s Russia appears more neutral: A unified Korea would provide Russia economic opportunies through a Korean link to the trans-Siberian express and a chance to sell Siberian energy to fuel-starved Korea. But now the geopolitics of old seem to be shifting. Experts in Seoul and Washington say that the concerned powers may see advantages in a unified Korea. One area of agreement is that for a unified Korea to survive and thrive, it will have to secure its alliance with the United States. What about Beijing? Shin Sang-jin is a specialist in Chinese international policy at Kwangwoon University and a former researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification. He says China perceives risks in a unified Korea, but Beijing publicly will support the country’s emergence if unification is a peaceful, gradual process without external intervention. “If unified Korea makes claims on Kando [northeast Manchuria], that will be a nightmare for Beijing,” he said. Such concerns aside, China is likely to view an undivided Korea as a better partner, Mr. Shin said. “Historically, a stable Korean Peninsula has influenced China more positively than an unstable one.” Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., said how unified Korea chooses to define its identity would be the key factor determining its success or failure in international relations. “Generally, I think the most important aspect of a unified liberal-democratic, capitalist Korea will be what sort of choices it makes between traditional or ‘civilizational’ values or values associated with modernity,” Mr. Cha said. He said one choice would be to cling to notions of ethnic and racial identity and historical animosities ― the “natural order” of international relations in Asia. “This would incline Korea in the direction of a continental accommodation with China,” he said. The alternative vision, of Korea defining itself through modernistic values, would mean creating regional cooperation emerging out of common “modern” values of liberal democracy and an open economic order, Mr. Cha explained. “This choice would incline Korea in the direction of Japan and the United States.” Mr. Cha said he sees the latter as a better strategy. “Frankly, I think all the talk about how China’s economic pull will trump other grand strategy variables and will push Korea into the arms of China is short-sighted,” he said. “The history of international relations shows that economics is a double-edged sword ― for every incentive, there will emerge a disincentive.” End of a honeymoon Noting that South Korea’s current relationship with China is only possible because of the “buffer zone” of North Korea, Mr. Cha said the honeymoon will probably end after unification. “First, I do not think the U.S. troops will be on the Chinese border, even if they stay,” Mr. Cha said. “It will be more likely Korean troops [on] the border.” Even despite this, insecurity will naturally grow between the two countries, Mr. Cha said. “Historically, two countries with different types of regimes sharing a border will increase insecurity,” he said, adding that the unified Korea’s relations with China would be more complex than the current trade partnership. By dealing with China, the united Korea would learn an important lesson, Mr. Cha said. The current history dispute over the ancient kingdom of Goguryeo is a good example: “It will be Korea’s first awakening to Chinese power,” he said. Paik Jin-hyun, associate dean of Seoul National University’s Graduate School of International Studies, said redefining and maintaining its alliance with the United States is the inevitable course for a unified Korea. “The Korean Peninsula has always been swayed by the geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia,” Mr. Paik said. “You cannot see a unified Korea separately from the superpowers of the region. A unified Korea needs a strong external ally.” Mr. Paik said a small country’s diplomacy is all about choosing the right partner. “Realignment of the U.S. military here has been ongoing, and we don’t even know if they will be here after five years,” Mr. Paik said. “An alliance is accompanied by inconveniences, such as a limit to sovereign power. But calculating the benefit and cost, the unified Korea will need an ally.” Still, he expressed skepticism as to whether Washington would maintain its powerful 50-year alliance with a unified Korea. “U.S. strategy in the region is centered on Japan,” Mr. Paik said. “We cannot expect a unified Korea to replace Japan. But, it is important for the unified Korea to stress that two anchors are better than one.” All in the balance Assuming near-term unification, Mr. Paik said South Korea must start preparing a new diplomacy. “Unification cannot be successful without being trusted by neighbors,” he said. “Trust is the essence. It must made clear that this will not be a nuclear peninsula.” The unified Korea must maintain its territorial integrity, while keeping itself out of trouble with China, and it must avoid nationalistic approaches in relations with Japan, Mr. Paik suggested. Calming the growing anti-U.S. sentiment here is also important to build confidence with Washington, he added. “In terms of international relations, we must remember one thing. Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow are the keys to successful unification. Pyeongyang is not,” he said. Sohn Yul, a Japan expert and professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Chung-Ang University, foresees Japan acting benignly toward a unified Korea because regional security risks will be less. “To check the growing power of China, maintaining an amicable relation with the unified Korea will be vital for Japan,” Mr. Sohn said. “Because unification costs will be enormous, it is unlikely that the unified Korea will become a sudden economic rival of Japan.” Yun Deok-min, professor of the state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said Korea’s neighbors will perceive the unified nation primarily through the lens of its diplomatic strategy. The Korea of the future should choose a path of cooperation, instead of engaging in self-reliant diplomacy, Mr. Yun said, because it cannot survive without gaining trust and economic support externally. Mr. Yun said finding a sole preferred diplomatic partner within the region would be a foolish act for the unified Korea. Maintaining the alliance with Washington should be a basic framework to maintain a regional power balance, Mr. Yun said. “There is an old saying that a friendship with a far-away country helps tackle neighbors,” he said. “That should be the ground rule for the diplomacy of the unified Korea in the future.” by Ser Myo-ja
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