North’s hopes same as other countries

Robert A. Scalapino

International scholar Robert A. Scalapino recently expressed his thoughts on the current situation in the East Asian region, in particular regarding North Korea.
Scalapino is a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. He founded its Institute for East Asian Studies and has visited the North five times, including a visit when Pyongyang conducted its missile test in July of last year. He is also the author of more than 500 articles and 38 books or monographs on Asian politics and U.S.-Asia policy.
Scalapino, in an interview with Kim Young-hie, editor at large of the JoongAng Ilbo, said he believed that eventually the financial issues dogging the North Korean negotiations would clear up.
Discussing what prerequisites were required for the talks to be successful, he said, “One is verification. Given the history of the past and the lack of confidence regarding North Korea, that is not going to be easy.
“Then there is the question of the timing of the responses,” Scalapino said. “North Korea earlier insisted on simultaneous actions. The United States and others said sequential actions. They are going to continue to be difficult to resolve and they are going to require some compromise and intensive negotiations.”
Under an agreement reached in February, Pyongyang committed itself to taking initial steps to denuclearize but has yet to follow through, refusing to move forward before North Korean funds at a Macao-based bank are moved to a third country.
“But I do think that the United States today has embarked on a program of working with others about the North Korean issue. It is not likely that it will pursue the hard line policy that it pursued at the beginning of the Bush era.”
Asked whether Washington could offer Pyongyang a normalization of ties before a final settlement in the nuclear talks was reached, Scalapino said, “I think that is unlikely. The question of diplomatic relations will be a kind of final step in the whole process, making certain that the nuclear program is dismantled.”
The professor thought Pyongyang had a good opportunity on which it could capitalize. “There have clearly been major changes in the Bush policy. There is a willingness to negotiate and to accept a step-by-step dismantlement. These are much more flexible stances than the past. The question is, is the North going to respond? And if so, with proper timing?”
Scalapino said more time was needed to judge whether the North was really willing to dismantle or just trying to stall the talks by using other aspects of the ongoing negotiations, which also include the establishment of some permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
“The last decade has been a period of recurrent hope of an agreement on general principles and then collapse of the agreement. And that is a risk today,” said the scholar. “As far as North South relations are concerned, we have seen some light at the end of the tunnel. This is a period when both the United States and South Korea are testing North Korea. The door is partially open, but much is going to depend on what the North does.”
Asked what he thought of U.S. President George W. Bush’s proposal to replace the armistice that ended the Korean War with a permanent peace treaty, the professor said it was a positive sign, but under the current circumstances it is hard to judge Pyongyang’s thoughts on the issue.
“It was an effort to step forward and resolve one of the issues that has troubled Pyongyang. We haven’t gotten any clear idea whether the North is going to respond positively. There are many things about North Korea that we do not know,” said the professor.
He added that many factors, such as the relatively little knowledge of the inner workings of the reclusive North’s regime, made it hard to determine Pyongyang’s real intentions.
At the end of last year, President Bush’s remarks that he was willing to sign a permanent peace treaty gave rise to hopes that successful North Korean nuclear talks could pave the way for a stabilization of the region and lead to the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which the nations involved in the nuclear negotiations are also seeking.
While some scholars have suggested that Pyongyang might to opt to wait until the current Bush administration hands power over to its successor, Scalapino predicted that in regard to the Korean Peninsula not much would change.
“I don’t think there will be a very large change of policy,” said Scalapino, who added that a possible Democratic administration would be closer to American labor unions and could bring some changes on the economic front, but foreign policies toward Korea would likely stay on the current course.
“What will be crucial is to see whether the free trade agreement is ratified by the U.S. Congress,” Scalapino said.
The professor didn’t share the opinion of some scholars that the left-leaning President Roh Moo-hyun has damaged bilateral relations between Seoul and Washington but instead said the problem was with the lack of leadership provided by the president.
Drawing on the tendencies of small states in Asia that have tried to protect their national interests by employing a foreign policy that puts them in good standing with China and also the United States, Scalapino said that Pyongyang may not be different.
He said that “deep down,” the North is probably striving for the same goal other states have ― to get closer to Washington ― but has faced difficulties due to the nature of the regime.
“They have to make concessions with respect to some critical issues before they can improve relations with the United States,” Scalapino said.
In regards to the South, he said that the past two administrations have tried to employ a foreign policy that saw to it that Seoul had cordial relations with neighboring states but also with the United States, a distant non-threatening power.
Regarding rising nationalism in the region, Scalapino said that such nationalism at the end of the day would not harm relations between countries in the region, pointing to recent fence-mending meetings between the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea.
The professor said that the three countries would use a mixture of nationalism and globalism eventually to protect their interests, but he recommended that Seoul attempt to control popular nationalism rather than try to use it for its national interest.

by Brian Lee Staff Writer africanu@joongang.co.kr