[Indepth interview]Don’t rush FTA ratification, scholar says

While Seoul and Washington continue to debate the fine points of a possible free trade agreement that both administrations have approved but has not yet been ratified by either country’s legislature, Jorge Dominguez, Harvard University’s vice provost for international affairs, suggested in a recent interview that Seoul should keep negotiating but hold off on trying to finalize the deal now.
“The Bush administration ended last November when the president lost control of both houses of Congress. It’s very important for any country that has negotiated a free trade agreement with the United States, including South Korea, to take that observation into serious consideration,” Dominguez, also an expert in Latin American affairs, told Kim Yong-hie, editor at large of the JoongAng Ilbo.
“In particular, with regard to trade, the Democrats cannot afford to alienate the principal labor union federation of the United States, the AFL-CIO, because that is what staffs, helps support and propels Democrats in presidential elections,” said the professor, who said that while prominent Democrats such as Hillary Clinton may oppose the agreement now for various reasons, they understand the value of free trade between Seoul and Washington. He said the value of consolidating a partnership between Seoul and Washington was also an important factor in the free trade agreement consultations. Apart from the fact that an agreement would provide both sides an agreed framework upon which future disputes can be resolved, the wide political support for the deal in Seoul was another factor.
“It is a left-leaning government in Korea that has proposed this agreement so it has very broad support in Korea. It is very attractive for that reason. The problem is that the political time in the United States has changed,” Dominguez said. “If it were proposed to the U.S. Congress now, it would be defeated. And that would be the worst possible outcome.”
Rather than pushing for a premature ratification that could be defeated in light of the political climate in the United States, the professor said Seoul needs to keep an eye on Democrats and identify their demands while negotiating with Washington. Seoul officials have said they will not renegotiate the deal and will only listen to proposals while determining whether any changes to the agreement would be in line with the law.
“The key would be to continue negotiations with the leading Democrats in the Senate and the House in order to understand the terms that a Democratic president would care about upon election,” Dominguez said. While reading the Democrats’ pulse, he suggested that Seoul should accelerate free trade negotiations with the European Union to set an example that would give additional incentives to the next U.S. president and the U.S. Congress to ratify the free trade agreement with Korea. “Continue to inform yourselves and be ready to submit it, but do not try to do it now,” the professor reiterated.
“Make sure to proceed with the submission when there is a joint majority in the U.S. Congress to ratify it under a Republican or a Democratic president.”
The scholar thought that once a leading Democratic presidential contender has been established, members of the U.S. Senate and the House would close ranks, joined by some Republicans, and block ratification of the deal.
Washington and Seoul are planning to sign the deal on June 30. A revision had been widely expected after the Bush administration and Congress reached a bipartisan agreement in May to enforce tougher labor and environmental rules for pending and future free trade agreements. There is uncertainty if an agreement on revised provisions can be reached before the June 30 deadline. In order to bring agreements into effect quickly, President George Bush has the authority to “fast track” free trade deals by presenting them to the Congress and asking for a yes-or-no vote. Seoul officials have said both sides could continue to negotiate on revisions even after the draft deal is signed.
“If you make all your concessions now to the Bush administration then you have nothing else you can say to the next president of the United States, who could be a Democrat. You don’t want to give up all your chips,” the professor advised.
Dominguez, an expert on Latin America, said that even countries like Cuba ― often described as an isolated state ― have changed more than North Korea. He pointed out that Cuba has had foreign investment since 1999 and more than two million tourists, including family visits. “If you start down the list of changes, North Korea has really changed little. Cuba has changed a lot.”
The professor said he believed significant numbers of Cubans are ready for change. “They are looking forward to different ways of organizing the economy and policy. An important debate in Cuba is not about whether to change but in what form,” said Dominguez, who predicted that Fidel Castro’s brother Raul would most likely succeed Castro and strive for economic reform similar to that of China and Vietnam. One way to do that would be to increase exports of medical services, which the country is already doing, especially to Venezuela. He described Castro’s brother as a person working behind the scenes, unlike his brother who is at the center of public appearances. “Rather than have the public love him, he will win support by making the economy grow,” the professor said. He pointed out that in the past months, during which time Raul Castro has filled in for his ailing brother, Cuba’s economy has grown.
Regarding Beijing’s ambitions in Latin America, Dominguez said that although far from the position that China has in the East Asian region, the country is intensifying its efforts to increase its influence in the Latin American region.
“The growth of Chinese exports to Latin America is twice as fast as the growth of China’s exports to the rest of the world.”

by Brian Lee Staff Writer africanu@joongang.co.kr