[EDITORIALS]North Korean boat people?

A group of 21 North Koreans -- three families -- traveled south aboard a wooden boat and defected to South Korea on Sunday after encountering a South Korean Navy patrol boat in the waters west of Ongjin-gun. The South Korean government must pay careful attention to the possibility of more North Korean defectors moving by sea, because Sunday's asylum bid is clearly distinguishable from the recent trend of defections. Until lately, North Korean defectors have come to the South via China.

The South Korean government seems to believe that Sunday's incident does not foretell a surge of North Korean boat people. There had been precedents: Groups of North Korean defectors came to the South in 1987 via the East Sea (Sea of Japan) and in 1997 via the Yellow Sea. The Seoul government said North Korea will be reinforcing its coast guard activities after the latest defection, greatly reducing the possibility of more sea escapes. Seoul said it is difficult for North Koreans to secure a boat to flee South by sea. It also said the livelihood crisis in the North is slowly improving. Sunday's defection, it concluded, does not signal more such bids.

That conclusion may be too hasty, however. The defectors said they had prepared their escape bid for two months. North Korea's control on its society has reportedly loosened. North Koreans widely believe that, at least, they will not starve if they come to South Korea, and that belief encourages them to defect to the South. It is possible that North Korean refugees in China will board boats en masse to come to the South; some nongovernmental groups have already warned of such a possibility of North Korean boat people.

If North Korean groups frequently come to the South by sea, peninsular affairs may fall into uncontrollable confusion. First of all, an increase in defections by sea would create problems for the Seoul government in its preparations for accommodating them. Furthermore, frequent sea escapes would likely heighten the possibility of inter-Korean military confrontation in the waters. The North Korean military may violate the maritime border in order to stop North Korean boats from defecting to the South; gunfire could break out. The South Korean government must discuss in advance how it should handle sea escapes by North Koreans in order to prevent unforeseen problems.