SERI sees GDP gain of just 3.6% in 2012

As the global market falters, mainly because of the deepening woes in Europe, Korea is expected to enter a low-growth and high-inflation period.

Yesterday, the Samsung Economic Research Institute (SERI) became the first Korean economic group to project Korea’s economic growth to fall below 4 percent next year. The private think-tank estimated that Korea would see 3.6-percent growth in 2012 following 4-percent growth this year.

The report was released at the Samsung Group and affiliates’ weekly meeting of chief executives. The report is used by senior Samsung executives to set their business plans for the year.

SERI is one of the leading private economic institutes in the country.

The report said export growth would slow because of the cooling of the global economy, adding that the domestic market is too small to take up the slack from fewer outbound shipments. As a result, it called next year the beginning of a new, lower-growth phase for the country’s economy.

SERI’s 3.6-percent projection is a downward revision from its earlier estimate of 4 percent. It is also far lower than the official 4.8-percent forecast for 2012 growth. Seoul’s estimate of growth this year is 4.5 percent.

The SERI report said that when global economic growth falls by 1 percentage point, Korea’s export volume falls 4.2 points. It predicts global economic growth next year of 3.5 percent, down from 3.8 percent this year.

The report also predicted a slow global recovery, mainly because the European debt crisis will not be resolved quickly, keeping global financial markets unstable.

Developed economies, it continued, would stagnate in 2012, with individual economies unable to buck the global trend. Policy makers’ hands will be tied in considering stimuli out of fear of increasing already large budget deficits.

Emerging economies will fare no better in SERI’s view; growth will slow because of reduced export demand in developed markets and a continuation of severe inflationary pressures.

SERI said the U.S. economy will likely slow from 1.6-percent growth this year to 1.3 percent next year. Emerging markets, it predicted will see growth of 5.6 percent in 2012 compared with 6-percent growth this year. China, which has grown to be Korea’s largest export market, will also see somewhat slower growth: 8.4 percent compared to 9 percent this year.

In SERI’s view, domestic demand will increase 2.7 percent next year, slightly less than this year’s estimated 2.8-percent rise, because government spending is likely to decrease and credit will begin to tighten.

Inflation will slow to 3.4 percent in 2012 from this year’s predicted 4.4-percent pace as oil and food prices decline.

In its report, SERI advised its Samsung stablemates to compensate as much as possible in management plans for risk factors and be prepared to address crises quickly.

SERI is not the only institution to adjust its outlook on Korea. The International Monetary Fund said late Tuesday that Korea’s economy would grow 4 percent this year, down from its April estimate of 4.5 percent. The IMF cited the “unusual uncertainty in the external environment.”

In a regular report on the global economy released just before the World Bank/IMF annual meetings later this week, the Washington-based organization also lowered its growth outlook for the 2011 global economy from 4.3 percent to 4 percent, citing increased downside risks.

Advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union have seen a recovery that has been slower than expected and has been accompanied by persistent budget woes. In its latest assessment, the IMF slashed its growth outlook for the developed economies this year from 2.2 percent to 1.6 percent. The IMF advised Korea to reduce currency controls to help curb short-term external liabilities. It also said Korea needs to tighten its monetary policy.

Further on its view of Asia, the IMF said Korea and China had current account surpluses but real effective exchange rates have “moved less than those in deficit economies.”

“For these economies, a stronger exchange rate, combined with structural reforms, would raise domestic purchasing power and allow external rebalancing while also containing inflation pressure,” the IMF said.

Korea, it said, will also be able to “slow the pace of debt-creating capital inflows and the buildup of short-term external liabilities.”

The IMF expects Korea’s consumer prices to rise 4.5 percent this year.

Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said recently that the central bank may change its outlook for this year’s consumer price growth of 4 percent because inflation shows little signs of easing.

Consumer prices grew more than 5 percent in August, and many experts believe that this month’s consumer price report may show a similar increase.

In Korea, India and Vietnam, according to the IMF, the real cost of capital is at historical lows because of higher inflation in spite of nominal rate hikes.

“Inflation expectations are inching up,” added the IMF. “In these economies, monetary tightening needs to be sustained.”

By Lee Ho-jeong, Yonhap [ojlee82@joongang.co.kr]

한글 관련 기사 [머니투데이]

삼성, 내년 성장률 3.6%로 둔화…수출 감소할 것

삼성硏, 내년 경제전망 보고서 발표…삼성그룹 내년 경영계획 수립 착수

삼성경제연구소가 우리나라 경제성장률이 올해 4.0%에서 내년 3.6%로 낮아질 것으로 전망했다. 물가상승률은 올해 4.4%에서 3.4%로 낮아질 것으로 내다봤다.

삼성경제연구소는 21일 삼성그룹 수요 사장단 회의에서 이같은 내용을 담은 내년도 경제전망 보고서를 발표했다. 삼성그룹 각 계열사들은 이를 바탕으로 내년도 경영계획을 수립하게 된다.

삼성경제연구소는 유럽 등 선진국의 재정위기 여파로 내년에도 세계 경제성장률이 3.4%로 하락할 것으로 예상했다. 선진국의 경우 미국은 1.5%에서 1.3%로 둔화되고 중국 역시 9.0%에서 8.4%로 낮아질 것으로 예상했다.

특히 심각한 재정위기를 겪고 있는 유럽의 경제성장률은 올해 1.6%에서 내년 0.8%로 절반 수준으로 떨어질 것으로 전망했다. 반면 일본의 경우 올해 -0.7%에서 1.7%로 상승하지만 성장동력은 미약할 것으로 분석됐다.

삼성 고위 관계자는 "중국은 수출의존도가 높아 선진국 경기침체로 수출이 둔화되겠지만 내수가 어느 정도 지지해 줄 것"이라며 "이에 따라 어느 정도 성장세를 유지할 것으로 예측됐다"고 설명했다.

우리나라 역시 전세계 경기침체의 여파로 성장률이 떨어질 것으로 예측됐다. 삼성경제연구소는 우리나라 성장률 전망을 올해 4.0%에서 내년 3.6%로 낮아질 것으로 내다봤다.

우리 경제성장의 주동력인 수출이 세계 경기침체의 여파로 감소할 것으로 예상되는 반면 보조동력인 내수가 수출 둔화를 보완하기에는 역부족이란 판단에서다. 정부의 재정지출 역시 확대하는데 한계가 있고 금융정책은 물가 상승 위험 때문에 금융완화 정책을 펴기 어려울 것으로 분석했다.

수출의 경우 전통적인 `효자` 품목인 자동차와 조선, 석유화학 등의 수출증가율이 떨어질 것으로 전망됐다. 이 역시 전세계 경기침체에 따른 여파다. 반면 반도체의 경우 올해 바닥인 상황이어서 소폭 반등할 것으로 예상했다.

국내 민간소비 증가율 역시 올해 2.8%에서 2.7%로 0.1%포인트 하락할 것으로 내다봤다. 물가상승률 역시 올해 4.4%에서 3.4%로 낮아질 것으로 전망했다. 국제유가와 곡물 가격이 하락할 것으로 예상돼 물가상승 압력이 줄어들 것으로 예상되기 때문.

이밖에 내년도 원달러 환율은 올해 1093원에서 내년 1060원으로, 금리는 4.5%에서 4.4%로 하락할 것으로 예측했다.

이 관계자는 "내년도 경영환경은 불확실성이 확대되고 금융불안이 지속되는 가운데 실물경제가 냉각될 것으로 예상됐다"며 "경제가 어려워지면 세계 각국은 자국 기업 보호를 이해 규제를 강화할 것이기 때문에 이에 대한 대비가 필요하다"고 설명했다.