Hope is not reality (KOR)

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Hope is not reality (KOR)

President Moon Jae-in has returned from his seven-day trip to Europe after having summits with five government leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa May. France and the UK are permanent members of the United Nations. Moon’s trip to Europe could be deemed successful given the positive reaction Pope Francis showed when Moon delivered to him an invitation to Pyongyang on behalf of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last week.

The pontiff has been respected as a “messenger of peace” since taking office in 2013, as seen in the monumental roles he played in normalizing U.S.-Cuban relations and striking a peace deal between the government and rebel forces in Colombia. A papal visit to North Korea can help achieve the denuclearization and transform the rogue state into a normal state.

But Moon’s plea for an easing of sanctions on the North in the European theater suffered a critical setback despite his passionate call for support. He based his logic on the belief that it is the time for the international community to loosen the sanctions as North Korea has already crossed a point of no return in denuclearization. But his European hosts gave that notion the cold shoulder.

The French and British leaders even used the term CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization) — which is not used by Uncle Sam anymore — and are not convinced of the need to ease sanctions on the pariah state. As a result, the expression that the European Union demands North Korea implement a CVID was included in a joint statement at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), an intergovernmental process established in 1996 to foster dialogue and cooperation between Asia and Europe. That means Moon’s attempt to raise Europe’s support for an easing of sanctions failed.

That fiasco owes lot to the Moon administration’s misguided sense of reality. If it really believed Europe would support the idea of accelerating the denuclearization if Seoul takes the lead in easing sanctions, that’s a sheer miscalculation. Though the government has the conviction that easing sanctions will facilitate the North’s denuclearization, Europe thought differently. It believed that only tightened sanctions will lead to denuclearization.

The United States also has decided not to hurry the denuclearization process. A second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim was expected to be held in November after the U.S. midterm elections, but the meeting seems to be delayed until 2019. As a result, the Moon administration’s plan to accelerate inter-Korean exchanges next year after wrapping up an end-of-war declaration this year will most likely go down the drain. The government has trouble differentiating between hope and reality. The government will make a grave mistake if it adheres to its ill-conceived belief that the nuclear conundrum will be solved successfully if it takes the initiative on the denuclearization front.

JoongAng Ilbo, Oct. 22, Page 34

'절반의 성공'에 그친 문 대통령의 유럽 순방
문재인 대통령이 유럽 5개국 순방을 마치고 어제 돌아왔다. 이번 순방은 문 대통령이 전한 김정은 북한 국무위원장의 초청에 프란치스코 교황이 긍정적 반응을 보였다는 점에선 성공이다. 교황은 그간 미국-쿠바 간 국교 정상화 및 콜롬비아 평화협정 타결 때 큰 활약을 해 평화의 사도로 추앙받는 인물이다. 그런 그의 방북은 비핵화는 물론 북한의 정상국가화에도 디딤돌이 될 게 분명하다.
하지만 문 대통령은 유럽에서 대북제재 완화를 호소했다가 쓴맛을 봤다. 북한은 이미 돌이킬 수 없을 정도로 비핵화를 했으니 제재를 늦춰줘야 한다는 게 문 대통령의 논리였다. 하지만 반응은 싸늘했다. 프랑스·영국 정상 모두 설득당하기는커녕 요즘엔 미국도 쓰지 않는 '완전하고 검증 가능하며 불가역적인 비핵화(CVID)'를 주문했다. 결국 "북한에 CVID를 요구한다"란 표현은 아시아·유럽정상회의(ASEM) 공동성명에 들어갔다. 유럽을 지렛대 삼아 제재 완화를 끌어내겠다는 구상이 실패한 셈이다.
이런 패착은 정부의 잘못된 상황 인식 탓이다. 선도적 제재 완화로 비핵화에 활기를 불어넣겠다는 정책을 유럽이 지지할 거로 믿었다면 큰 착각이다. 제재를 늦춰줌으로써 북한의 비핵화 의지에 힘을 실어줘야 한다는 게 정부의 주장이지만 구미의 인식은 다르다. 더 제재를 옥좨야 비핵화가 성공한다고 이들은 믿는다.
중간선거를 앞둔 미국도 비핵화를 서두르지 않겠다는 입장으로 돌았다고 한다. 빠르면 11월 중 열릴 것 같던 2차 북·미 정상회담도 내년으로 미뤄진 모양이다. 올해 종전선언을 끝낸 뒤 내년부터 남북 교류에 속도를 낸다는 정부의 계획도 물 건너가는 분위기다. 이런 실수는 바람과 현실을 못 구별하기 때문이다. 국제사회는 아랑곳없이 한국이 끌고 가면 북핵 문제는 잘 풀릴 거란 생각은 착각이자 오만이다.
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