[Column] Maintaining the alliance is crucial

Kim Min-seok

The author is an editorial writer and senior researcher at the Institute for Military and Security Affairs at the JoongAng Ilbo.

“Capitalism is bound to die, socialism is bound to win,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a 2013 speech at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

“Democracy itself is in peril, here at home and around the world,” U.S. President Joe Biden said during a visit to Arlington National Cemetery in 2021.

“The next five years will be crucial for getting our efforts to build a modern socialist country in all respects off to a good start,” Xi said in October 2022.

“It is clear that the next ten years will be the decisive decade. We stand now at the inflection point, where the choices we make and the priorities we pursue today will set us on a course that determines our competitive position long into the future,” according to the National Security Strategy report of the Biden administration in October 2022.

As Biden and Xi suggested, the world is likely to head to a turbulent era in the next decade, quite similar to the chaotic period a century ago when China, Russia and Japan competed over the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria in the Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895) and the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905).

As a result of the hegemony war, small countries became colonies of strong ones. Even China suffered an irrevocable decline. The Joseon Dynasty was annexed by imperial Japan in 1910 and the Korean Peninsula was reduced to ashes during the 1950-53 Korean War.

South Korea today has strong economic and military powers. But its destiny is still unclear depending on the outcomes of the new hegemony contest. Xi, who respects Marx as the greatest philosopher, made it clear that he will spread Chinese-style socialism around the world. In the meantime, Biden vows to defend liberal democracy from crisis at any costs.

“This is a battle between the utility of democracies in the 21st century and autocracies,” he said during a press conference in March 2021. Unavoidable is a heated — and prolonged — battle between autocracies, with China at the center, and democracies led by the United States, over critical values such as freedom and human rights. A competition of systems based on values is in full swing.

With the goal of realizing the “China Dream” by 2049, China aims to build a powerful socialist state to become a top-class country in economy, technology, military and security. It presented a bold plan to complete the modernization of the Chinese military by 2027 — the centenary of the founding of the Chinese armed forces — and beat the U.S. by 2049, as specified at the fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC in Beijing in October 2020.

China has accelerated defense reform since 2018. It is strengthening military capabilities by increasing the number of nuclear weapons from 350 to 1,000, building additional nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, procuring more Aegis-class warships and introducing fifth-generation stealth fighters and strategic bombers.

President Syngman Rhee watches Foreign Minister Byun Young-tae and U.S. Secretary of State John Dulles sign a provisional Mutual Defense Treaty in Seoul on August 8, 1953. [ILJOGAK]

In terms of the number of ships, the Chinese Navy already overpowers the U.S. Navy. Based on its anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) strategy, China massively deployed ballistic and supersonic missiles inland to keep the U.S. Navy in check or strike it in the East and South China Sea if necessary. China and Russia increasingly conduct their joint maritime exercises in the waters east and west of the Korean Peninsula.

Last summer, China even carried out an intimidating shooting drill to contain Taiwan. Military analysts think that China could attempt to occupy Taiwan by 2027 instead of the early 2030. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is securing key maritime posts by building military bases connecting the South China Sea, the Straits of Malacca, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, as well as parts in the South Pacific.

North Korea is joining in with its nuclear missiles. With 60 to 100 nuclear bombs, the North is threatening the South after siding with China and Russia. It even created a military doctrine that allows the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea. It also seeks to weaken the South Korea-U.S. alliance by pressuring Washington and Tokyo with nuclear missiles. Despite international sanctions on North Korea, China and Russia are secretly supporting the country.

The Biden administration deals with a threatening China with a containment policy. In the National Security Strategy announced last October, the U.S. government likened its current security threat to the fierce supremacy competition in the 19th century and the U.S.-Soviet strategic competition in the 20th century. The Biden administration wants to use all possible diplomatic, economic and military means to protect democratic values and support a “free, open, secure, and prosperous world.”

Through the Indo-Pacific strategy, the Biden administration plans to activate the QUAD and Aukus. With its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the U.S. wants to check China’s influence in digital trade, the supply chain, fair economy, infrastructure and clean energy. America aims to exclude China from the semiconductor supply chains through the Chip 4 alliance with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Semiconductors are the core of China’s economy and its advanced military powers.

The Biden administration also announced its military response to authoritarian countries like China in times of emergency. It will mobilize allies and friends to the maximum and devise a comprehensive — and integrated — countermeasures. Developing next-generation B-21 stealth bombers, hypersonic missiles, the Ghost Fleet Overload fleet of unmanned stealth vessels and AI-based drone combat systems is just a fraction of the U.S. military preparation against China.

At the end of last year, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration disclosed its own Indo-Pacific strategy — primarily based on the rule of law, human rights, nonproliferation, counter-terrorism, comprehensive security, economic security network, and advanced science and technology — to secure national interest.

In the first Korea-U.S. summit in Seoul last May, the two presidents redefined the alliance by focusing on strong extended deterrence against the North Korean nuclear threats, economic security and restoration of global supply chains. The military alliance was upgraded to a comprehensive alliance, which includes technology and economy.

Upon arriving in South Korea, Biden visited the Samsung Electronics semiconductor plant in Pyeongtaek first instead of the U.S. military base in that city. He met with corporate leaders to attract Korean investment in the U.S., an unequivocal barometer of the current state of the alliance.

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the Korea-U.S. alliance following the Mutual Defense Treaty signed in October 1953. When the Joseon Dynasty signed the Treaty of Peace, Amity, Commerce and Navigation with the U.S. in 1882 — and when the Korean War broke out — Korea had little to offer to the rest of the world. Its presence was simply too weak. But Korea’s international stature today — the world’s 10th largest economy and the sixth strongest military power, for instance — cannot be compared to the past. No country can subdue Korea with conventional weapons.

It was not easy for the Korea-U.S. alliance to start. The U.S. pushed forward an armistice to end the Korean War early. At that time, Washington was not interested in the mutual defense treaty. But President Syngman Rhee opposed the armistice, insisted on advancing up to the Yalu River for the unification of the two Koreas, and released anti-communist prisoners of war. His conflict with the U.S. reached a serious level.

“If Chinese troops stay in North Korea, it would be same as sentencing the Korean people to death,” said Rhee. Instead, he demanded the U.S. sign a mutual defense treaty and offer defense capabilities to the South Korean military in return for signing the armistice.

The Korea-U.S. alliance experienced many hardships. President Park Chung Hee attempted to develop nuclear programs for fear of the withdrawal of U.S. forces and a security vacuum. Conflicts continued over South Korean military’s autonomy and transfer of the wartime operational control. After a series of summits involving Moon Jae-in, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, the Korea-U.S. joint drills came to a halt and the combined military readiness was noticeably weakened.

After President Yoon took office, the alliance was normalized. But North Korean nuclear threats are getting more serious along with the deterioration of the international situation. We will likely face an international security vortex in the next five to 10 years. We must review the seven decades of the alliance and overcome the turbulent waves of the crisis. We must not forget that our military capabilities, values and trust are the most important factors to maintain the cherished alliance.