North to display key weapons at parade Wednesday

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North to display key weapons at parade Wednesday

 
North Korea is likely to display upgraded short-range ballistic missiles it has been aggressively testing, and possibly a solid-fuel version of its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, at a military parade expected to take place Wednesday.
 
Feb. 8 marks the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s founding of its military.
 
The parade would be the first of its kind since April last year, shortly before the regime acknowledged its first suspected outbreak of Covid-19 within its borders.  
 
“The North has made significant progress with its KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) through continuous testing, so there is a high chance it will display modified or upgraded versions of these missiles, such as the type it can fire from rail carriage-based launchers,” said Hong Min, director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute of National Unification.
 
The North conducted 70 missiles launches last year, including its first successful test of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in November and at least one publicized test of a solid-fuel engine in December, which state media said was intended for “new-type strategic weapons system.”
 
 
Based on these tests, Hong said the North could use the parade to show off a solid-fuel version of its longest-range ICBM, the Hwasong-17, as well as a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from its Pukguksong series.
 
“With the exception of the Hwasong-12, North Korea’s arsenal of medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles is quite outdated and has exhibited a low testing success rate in the past, so they need other weapons, such as SLBMs and cruise missiles, to make up for this weakness,” Hong said.
 
Hong noted that although the North has displayed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) at past military parades, such as the parade in February 2018, it may be more careful about displaying drones again after the brazen drone incursion in December.  
 
“While we paid little attention to the appearance of UAVs at the 2018 parade, they will know that we are much more sensitive to such weapons now after their drone infiltration,” he said, adding that the regime “may be sensitive to criticism that it is blatantly displaying weapons it used to infiltrate South Korea.”
 
Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asan Institute’s Center for Foreign Policy and National Security, said that the regime would probably display some weapons from categories that Kim Jong-un called his regime’s top military priorities in the five-year plan announced at the Eighth Workers’ Party Congress in January 2021.
 
“Since Kim said at the meeting that his regime would pursue tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, SLBMs, reconnaissance satellites and UAVs, these weapons and their associated equipment are likely to appear at the Feb. 8 parade to underline the regime’s mid-term progress thus far in achieving its goals,” Yang said.
 
Yang cautioned that North Korea’s parades are meant to provoke as much as they are intended to send a message to the regime’s enemies.  
 
“These parades are North Korea’s way of projecting a higher-level threat to South Korea and the United States than its verified weapons actually do,” Yang said, noting that the regime began to showcase more untested weapons since 2017, when its missile testing picked up speed.
 
“Previously, the weapons displayed by the North at parades were ones we knew they already possessed,” Yang said, adding that showing new weapons before testing them was Pyongyang’s way of controlling its desired threat escalation.
 
Yang said showing more advanced weapons was Pyongyang’s way of upping its leverage against Washington.
 
“Even though the North claims it will not return to talks with the United States until the latter drops its ‘hostile policy,’ showcasing weapons are one way that the regime likely hopes to strengthen its hand in potential future negotiations.”
 
One example of this are the North’s Pukguksong-4, 5 and 6 SLBMs, which are not known to have been tested but nonetheless appeared for the first time during parades.
 
“Despite showing these new and enlarged SLBMs, the North has neither tested them nor displayed any submarines that could fire them, which lowers those weapons’ credibility,” Yang said.
 
SLBMs are strategic weapons considered essential to maintaining a country’s retaliatory or second strike capability should it come under a nuclear attack.
 
Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea Program for the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FSR), said Pyongyang could be showing yet-untested weapons to demonstrate commitment to its goals.
 
“This is the North Koreans’ way of saying, ‘We’re serious, and we will do what we said we would,’” Bondaz said, noting that North Korea has achieved many of the military development goals previously announced by Kim.
 
While the North said in December that it will launch a military reconnaissance satellite by April this year, Bondaz said, “It is unlikely that a satellite launch vehicle like the Unha-3 will be displayed at the parade — but not impossible, given the North still lacks intelligence-gathering, surveillance and reconnnaissance capabilities.”
 
Bondaz said he is looking for other signs of technical progress to add teeth to the North’s declared nuclear weapons doctrine and confirmation of observations gleaned from previous tests.
 
“What matters for us is evidence of a link between SRBMs and tactical nuclear weapons,” he said, referring to the North’s promulgation of a law in September authorizing first use of nuclear weapons in certain scenarios and Kim’s pronouncements in April that his regime would pursue the development of smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to be deployed with front-line military units.
 
According to a report by FSR, at least two versions of the Hwasong-15 ICBM have been developed by the North, and the parade might shed light on the missile’s progress.
 
North Korea launched what experts believe was a Hwasong-15 on Nov. 3, which failed during second-stage separation.  
 
That visibly smaller missile featured significant structural modifications from the first Hwasong-15, launched by the regime in November 2017, including possible changes to its fuel tanks, shorter first stage and second stage boosters and a longer and more tapered payload section, leading observers to theorize Pyongyang is working to improve the missile’s capabilities since its successful test five years ago.
 

BY CHO JUNG-WOO, MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
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