'Our neighbors are those with similar values,' Lithuanian security experts say

Diplomacy

Published: 23 Feb. 2023, 15:42 Updated: 23 Feb. 2023, 17:21

'Our neighbors are those with similar values,' Lithuanian security experts say

Demonstrators wave flags of Ukraine, Iran, Europe, Georgia, Lithuania and others as they take part in a pro-Ukrainian rally at Odeonsplatz square on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on Feb.18. [AFP/YONHAP]

VILNIUS - Friday marks one full year since Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine began.

As the momentous date approaches, one top Lithuanian official warns that Europe faces a growing threat of Russia opening a second war front on NATO territory.

“In the current assessment, the possibility of having that scenario is much higher than it was a year ago,” said Darius Jonas Semaska, an ambassador at large at the Transatlantic Cooperation and Security Policy Department of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry.

Semaska, who has been coordinating with the NATO secretariat for its annual summit to be hosted in Vilnius for the first time in July, was responding to a question on whether Russia was reckless enough to open another front of war in Europe after invading Ukraine a year ago.

Had it not been for their NATO membership, the Baltic country could very well have been in Ukraine’s shoes, he said.

Darius Jonas Semaska, an ambassador at large at the Transatlantic Cooperation and Security Policy Department of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, speaks with the Korea JoongAng Daily at the ministry in Vilnius on Feb. 9. [ESTHER CHUNG]

Lithuania has long condemned what it sees as Russia’s revanchist intentions. The Baltic nations has fresh memories of occupation by the Soviet Union that ended only late in the 20th century.

Politicians like Zygimantas Pavilionis, a member of the Lithuanian parliament and former ambassador to the United States, say a Russian invasion of Lithuanian territory is not entirely out of the question even though the country is one of NATO's 30 members.

“We have 700 kilometers of border with Belarus that is occupied by Russia today, and we have quite a long border with Kaliningrad,” said Pavilionis, speaking with the Korea JoongAng Daily recently. “We are sandwiched in, and this is why we want to have more American troops stationed here and another brigade from Germany.”

The NATO summit in Vilnius in July is expected to address questions regarding the alliance's deterrence posture against threat escalations in the region, as well as on the deepening convergence of security issues between Europe and Asia.

“The conceptualization of security is broadening — there is increased concern about China in the Arctic, China’s Belt and Road initiative and its implications, China’s messaging narratives in the informational space, and Lithuanians in particular have been concerned about the Chinese media outlets parroting Russian propaganda,” said Konstantinas Andrijauskas, associate professor of Asian studies and international politics at Vilnius University.

For the latest analyses on the conflict in Ukraine and the emerging roles for non-traditional players like Korea and Japan in European security, the Korea JoongAng Daily spoke with a group of policymakers and security experts in the country. The following are edited excerpts of the conversations.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is reaching its full year. Where do we see the conflict going?

Andrijauskas: Until around mid-summer last year, Russia’s main goal was victory. They were really serious about winning even after the retreat from Kyiv. But after the stalling of their offensives in the Donbas and especially later reverses in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, they have entered this period that the Americans had entered after the Tet Offensive in Vietnam. But in order to negotiate on better terms, they may escalate to quite a large degree. Russians can strategically lose but still retain a lot of tangible gains, which many of Ukraine’s allies shouldn’t allow to happen.

Konstantinas Andrijauskas, associate professor of Asian studies and international politics at Vilnius University, speaks with the Korea JoongAng Daily at the Foreign Ministry in Vilnius on Feb. 9. [ESTHER CHUNG]

There has been a heated debate in Europe on supplying Ukraine with key tactical weapons, which some critics said may instigate Russia to further escalate its military operations in Ukraine.

Semaska: Russian moves do not depend on what we do. Russia basically employs everything they have in order to reach their goals in Ukraine. Their decision to deploy is limited by their actual logistical capability, not by the degree of engagement of Europeans or NATO allies.

What are the chances that Russia could go so far as to press the nuclear button in the war?

Andrijauskas: There was a big talk about tactical nuclear weapons possibly being used in the war, but the Russian leadership is not crazy. There were expectations that the Russians may escalate the war with related hybrid means when they controlled the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, or through the Zaporizhzhia plant still under their control, but that has not happened thus far. Russians have nonetheless done extremely bad things like what they did in Bucha, and these actions do signify that this regime is in many ways evil. But one can be evil and rational enough at the same time.

Do we know how recent key military assets that European allies have provided Ukraine may turn the tables in the war?

Andrijauskas: Analysts are very much aware that quite a lot of weaponry has reached Ukraine, but they have not been spotted on the battlefield yet. For example, none of the 200-plus Polish T-72 tanks have been spotted. It’s not because Ukraine is corrupt, as the Russians would claim, but because Ukraine is preparing for something. The weather has been uncharacteristically not cold enough, and the grounds are not frozen to make massive offensive operations a viable option. The Ukrainians would probably wait until April to start their major offensive.

Following the Russian aggression in Ukraine, non-NATO members in Europe with strong military capacities of their own like Finland have opted for membership in the alliance. Are we seeing a new era for the military alliance? Is the NATO pledge to defend all 30 members’ territories stronger than ever?

Semaska: We are confident that that NATO pledge will stand, but we also want to see that NATO has enough capabilities to really implement that pledge. It is one of our goals as host nation of the NATO summit in July to have the members of the alliance bring as much assurances as possible on their capacities to rebuke possible aggression and deter the aggressor. Lithuania has been preaching by example because in the past 10 years we have increased our defense spending at least five-fold.

Ukrainian lawmaker Kira Rudik, center, Lithuanian politician Zygimantas Pavilionis, second right, and Taiwanese legislators pose for the media at the assembly hall of Taiwan Legislative Yuan in Taipei on Oct. 25, 2022. [AP/YONHAP]

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg addressed security issues in the Taiwan Strait during his recent trip to Asia, much to Beijing’s protests. Are we seeing increased convergence of security issues between Europe and Asia?

Andrijauskas: We are obviously concerned about the China-Russia nexus on many different levels. China is not really sending arms to Russia now, this was considered a relief, but we also understand that China is probably the single key actor that diminishes the significance of the Western sanctions on Russia.

Pavilionis: We feel threatened by Chinese actions in Europe. For instance, across the border, Putin, with Chinese loans, is building the Ostrovets nuclear power plant just like they did with Chernobyl — without any nuclear safety culture, with very flawed technology. And the Chinese are supporting the Russians legally, politically and economically, buying their oil and gas.

What roles are the Asia Pacific Four (AP4) states expected to play in the European regional security context, as the AP4 leaders are invited to the NATO summit for the second year in a row?

Semaska: The summit in Madrid showed that it was really important to deepen our links with the Indo-Pacific partners and to enter into a stronger cooperation with the like-minded countries in the region. We have to stand together in sending out a strong message for freedom and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and also to all the actors in the Indo-Pacific that war and aggression is not a viable option.

Pavilionis: To borrow the words of the Taiwanese digital minister who visited Lithuania a month ago, in the current century, geographical borders are not so important anymore. Our neighbors are those with similar values on democracy and freedom. So, for Lithuania, our neighbors are Korea or Taiwan, and Russia and Belarus could be as far away from us as a town in Alaska is to us.

BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]