Remains of launch vehicle may shed light on North’s new technology

North Korea

Published: 02 Jun. 2023, 20:47 Updated: 02 Jun. 2023, 21:41

Remains of launch vehicle may shed light on North’s new technology

Photos released by the North's state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Chollima satellite launch vehicle on Thursday, left, and of the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile on Feb. 19 show the two rockets share apparently similar liquid-fuel propulsion engines, but different payload dimensions. [YONHAP]

South Korean military forces are working to salvage the remains of the North Korean satellite launch vehicle (SLV) that crashed into the sea shortly after launch in the hopes of gaining insight into the North's ballistic missile and satellite reconnaissance technology.

The Chollima-1 SLV, which Pyongyang’s state media said failed due to a botched engine ignition during second-stage separation, fell into the Yellow Sea approximately 200 kilometers (124 miles) west of Eocheong Island, which is located 70 kilometers off the North Jeolla coast.

Photos released by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) on Wednesday showed a white metal cylinder floating in the sea, which the JCS said likely formed part of the SLV.

In photos of Wednesday’s launch released by North Korean state media, the Chollima-1’s payload appeared larger and rounder than the warheads usually mounted on the regime’s ballistic missiles.

A photo of the the white metal cylinder that is believed to have been part of the North Korean satellite launch vehicle that crash into the sea on Wednesdy. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]

Should the South successfully recover not only the presumed SLV section, but also the Chollima-1’s spy satellite payload, it could shed light on the state of the North’s reconnaissance technology.

When the North conducted what it called “an important final-stage test” for a spy satellite in December, it also released blurry, black-and-white aerial photographs of Seoul and Incheon, which led South Korean analysts to question its reconnaissance capabilities.

South Korean military authorities on Friday said the cylinder had sunk amid efforts to tow it back to land for analysis and that it was lying sideways at a depth of 75 meters.

The military said it estimated the sunken cylinder was 15 meters in length, between 2 and 3 meters in diameter and “quite heavy.”

Defense officials said a naval submarine has been deployed to aid in the salvage operation, which they said would likely conclude on Saturday.

The words "checking panel 13" are visible in red letters of the side of the white metal cylinder believed to be from the fallen North Korean satellite launch vehicle on Wednesday. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]

In photos taken of the cylinder on Wednesday when it was still afloat, red letters that read “checking panel 13” were visible.

Similar markings have been spotted on earlier photos of the North’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), suggesting that similar technology and components were used to build the Chollima-1 SLV.

Photographs of the grey-and-white checker pattern on the cylinder’s rim suggest it could be one of two sections that made up the upper section of the Chollima-1.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at Middlebury, said on Twitter that the cylinder’s relatively intact appearance “suggests the [Chollima-1’s] second stage didn’t fire very much at all.”

Lewis also cited the lack of ionospheric disturbances detected by an open source launch detection tool as evidence that “the rocket failed early enough that it didn’t disturb the ionosphere.”

Defense experts who also examined photos of the launch largely concurred that the latest SLV featured technology previously used in the North’s longer-range ballistic missiles.

Writing on Twitter, Joseph Dempsey, a research associate for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, “It does appear that North Korea's Chollima-1 SLV first stage may be powered by dual nozzle RD-250 derived liquid fuel engine as fitted to their Hwasong-15 ICBM.”

The North’s apparent use of an ICBM-derived liquid-fuel engine for the Chollima-1 SLV contrasts with the engine clusters visible in photos of the regime’s earlier Unha SLVs, which experts believe were derived from Scud short-range ballistic missiles.

The Stimson Center’s 38 North analysis group, which monitors North Korea developments, said, “Although the Chollima-1 exhaust plume appeared transparent, indicative of being liquid fuelled, it did deposit light grey residue around the launch pad and through the exit to the flame bucket, and across nearby mudflats.”

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]