Five ways to deal with Korea-China relations

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Published: 07 Jun. 2023, 20:17

Five ways to deal with Korea-China relations

Wi Sung-lac

The author is a former South Korean representative to the six-party talks and head of the diplomacy and security division of the JoongAng Ilbo’s Reset Korea campaign.

A red light is blinking for Korea-China relations. Beijing started to complain about Seoul getting ever closer to the United States. After canceling all levels of consultations with the Korean government, China gave an ultimatum-like warning against Korea’s stance heavily leaning toward the U.S. After the exchange of toughened diplomatic rhetoric between Seoul and Beijing, China is fiddling with retaliatory measures against Korea. Beijing even claims that Korea-China relations are the worst since the normalization of bilateral ties in 1992.

Such alarming developments were forewarned. After the launch of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration last year, China worried about the possibility of Korea siding with the U.S. in holding China in check. So, Beijing demanded a respect for China’s national interest from Seoul. China believes that the Korean government betrayed China even though it has helped Korea reap economic gains over the past three decades since the establishment of diplomatic ties. Beijing has turned to the offensive after concluding that the Yoon government crossed the line particularly after his summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington.

Despite China’s shift to the hard-line, the Yoon administration won’t pause the consolidation of the alliance with America. President Yoon will certainly participate in the NATO Summit in July and visit Washington for a tripartite summit with Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. If Korea continues to join U.S.-led supply chains, China will most likely take retaliatory actions.

Russia is no exception. After Seoul sent a strong message underscoring the importance of an international alliance to safeguard liberty, the U.S. and other members of the international community demanded Korea play a role, including weapon supplies for Ukraine. If Korea complies, Russia will be angry. That will also provoke China and Russia to side with North Korea over the nuclear issue. In that case, Pyongyang will find it easier to ratchet up the level of its nuclear weapons.

That demands answers from stakeholders. After the division of the world into the West and the Russia-China camp since the Ukraine war, Korea cannot but take steps with the U.S. But at the same time, Korea cannot dismiss diplomacy with China and Russia given the need for their help in achieving peace, prosperity and unification of the Korean Peninsula in the face of geopolitical risks.

How to solve the dilemma? First, the Yoon administration had better avoid worsening the situation by exchanging tits for tats with China. It may look easy at first glance. But it is not. Given the public sentiment against China, the government could expect public support for its friction with China. But the government should be careful.

Second, Korea must strengthen communication with China on various levels. Given the low probability of China gladly accepting a summit proposal from Korea, the government must have sincere working-level talks with the neighbor. Allowing the National Security Council with full authority on the issue to take the initiative could be a good idea.

Third, for substantial dialogue with China, the government must first establish its policy direction toward China. The government must deal with its China policy in connection with its U.S. policy — not separately. In the past, Korea often addressed conflict with China through a quick fix in the course of cooperation with America. But since the U.S.-China rivalry reached a new height — and as their demands grew even stronger — such a naïve approach doesn’t work anymore. The government must set an integrated, coordinated and strategic frame of diplomacy before resolving conflicts. If the government stops short of fixing an effective coordinate to find the room for coordination with the U.S. as well as with China and Russia, it cannot have meaningful dialogue with Beijing, not to mention sustainable policy coordination with Washington.

Fourth, based on that paradigm, the government must find areas of common interest for trilateral cooperation among Korea, the U.S. and China and separate it from the tense U.S.-China contest. Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and free and fair trade could serve as good topics for tripartite cooperation.

Fifth, worsening Korea’s relations with China and Russia at the same time not only poses a heavy burden for the country but also does not help strategically. In the beginning, Russia was more forward-looking than China on the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons program, but Russia increasingly took China’s side amid the U.S.-Russia confrontation. The government must draw Russia to Korea’s side. It needs to take a prudent approach to weapons support for Ukraine from the strategic point of view.

China’s diplomatic offensives that have come to the surface pose serious challenges to the Yoon administration’s diplomacy. Today, whatever steps the government takes with the U.S. and Japan is directly linked to China. The diplomatic achievements by the president from his summits with Biden and Kishida can be accurately gauged only when you take into account their repercussions on Korea-China relations. I expect successful diplomacy from the government.