Be a G9 member while Biden is in office

Kim Jin-myung
The author is a novelist and a member of the steering committee of the Reset Korea Campaign of the JoongAng Ilbo.

A recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that just 50 percent of Americans favor the idea of defending South Korean in the event of a North Korean invasion. The fact that the other half disapproves could spell doom for the South. The country has special treatment from the United States. It is a poster boy for economic progress as well as free democracy thanks to U.S. aid and sponsorship.

But the Cold War is a bygone, and the United States does not have the lofty weight in world affairs that it used to have. And Pyongyang is now capable of firing off intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the U.S. mainland with the help of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The trilateral alliance among South Korea, the United States and Japan, which functions merely to chant condemnation of North Korea’s missile provocation, could fizzle out if Donald Trump retakes the White House in November.

Trump puts little value on alliances with other governments. He was critical of commitments to South Korea during his last term, from free trade agreement to U.S. military presence on the penninsula. His return could roil the bilateral relationship. Given his past friendliness towards North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his friendliness towards the rogue state, he could push ahead with the withdrawal of American troops by condoning Pyongyang’s nuclear armament.

Although the scenario could create a nightmare for South Korea, we have few options to persuade Trump. This time, we cannot rely on “adults in the room,” or the veteran aides who talked Trump out of extreme foreign policy steps. Having had to deal with nags on defense and foreign policy while in office, Trump is expected to form his Cabinet with people whom he can influence in his second term, if he is re-elected president.

During the Biden administration, the U.S. Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act enshrining the status quo of the U.S. deployment in South Korea to uphold “extended deterrence using full range of defense capabilities.” But Trump may find a way to bypass that law if he has the will with the unchecked presidential power he may exercise.

South Korea must ready itself for Trump’s possible return by exploring ways to appeal to him and possibly stock its own nuclear arsenal. More urgently, it must join the Group of 9 rank. The G7 grouping served well when the United States had mighty influence. But the now-eurocentric G7 has lost much of its muscle and lacks representation in its leadership. Including South Korea and Australia from the Asia-Pacific theater could broaden the elite group and add dynamism as well as representation. Seoul must push the reasoning hard and persuade the existing members meticulously.

G7 countries like Germany and Japan are also not free from Trump’s whims and scorns, but they don’t face the extreme threats that South Korea does. American people regard G7 nations as an “inner group” sharing common economic and security values, and even Trump won’t be able to challenge that fixed notion.

Seoul must aggressively persuade Washington — which may fear Trump’s overthrowing of the reinforced Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateralism Biden prizes — to invite South Korea into the G9 before November. The incumbent president’s visit to Ukraine has placed South Korea as a strategical partner to the West. The fact that country is a powerhouse in defense, semiconductors and batteries is a significant plus.

Since endorsement from Japan, the sole Asian member of G7, is important, Seoul must try to appeal to Tokyo who may hold a grudge against Seoul’s opposition to its bid for UN Security Council membership in the past. We must argue that Japan could be next if South Korea faces danger from totalitarian regimes. Seoul can even put forward a proactive proposal to build an undersea tunnel like the one that connects Britain and France.

The G9’s formation is up to the summits, and U.S. and Japanese leaders have never been so close. The strategic value of Australia, with its rich natural resources, is rising alongside tensions in the Taiwan Strait following the recent triumph of an anti-Beijing candidate in the country’s presidential election. If South Korea can take advantage of the momentum, it can persuade Biden and other G7 leaders to accept Seoul and Canberra as members of G9.

The government must form a task force immediately, as the 10 months left in Biden’s term could play more favorably for Seoul than the next four years ever will.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.