Four clues to understanding Trump’s popularity

Chung Jae-hong
The author is an international, diplomatic and security news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s approval rating does not show any signs of improving ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. In a recent Gallup poll on more than 1,000 registered voters in America, 61 percent of them said Biden doesn’t deserve reelection, while 38 percent disagreed.

Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump gestures during a campaign stop in Rochester, New Hampshire, on Jan. 21. [AP/YONHAP]

In another poll by CNN and SSRS, a survey and market research firm, Trump would defeat Biden by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent, if a general election were held today. Trump’s lead over Biden was more noticeable in seven swing states — including Arizona, Georgia and Michigan — than in other states. In those states holding the key to his election victory, Trump led Biden by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.

As nine months are still left until the election, the score card can change. But Trump’s continuous dominance over Biden in a hypothetical two-way race — and his supporters’ fervent backing regardless of his judicial risks — point to the high likelihood of his triumph in November. In the meantime, U.S. allies worry about his reelection because his America First creed will certainly weaken alliances and his protectionism will likely restrict global trade through tariff increase, as we saw during his first term.

Many people find it difficult to understand American voters’ support for the maverick head of state infamous for his brazen disrespect for democracy and his self-indulgent way. But his previous election victory and his strong bid for reelection were both possible because his radical policies worked. It can be misleading to simply brand him as a far-right populist without taking into account all the accomplishments he made as the leader. Such a misconception can spike a significant diplomatic discord between the two countries if Trump is reelected president.

According to New York Times columnist Bret Stephens and other journalists, some of Trump’s initiatives were effective. First is his draconian immigration policy. While in office, he swiftly deported illegal immigrants without granting them any chance to apply for defection. In contrast, Biden’s generous immigration policy prompted a drastic surge in the number of immigrants, only helping fuel anti-immigration sentiment among U.S. voters. A joint survey by Bloomberg and other media outlets on voters in the seven swing states showed 52 percent of them supporting Trump’s immigration policy while only 30 percent endorsed Biden’s.

Second is the diagnosis that U.S. society is going in the wrong direction. Trump positioned himself as the advocate for the low-income, blue-color whites after underscoring their worsening social and economic conditions compared to the elites in Washington. Liberal media and academia dismissed Trump’s stance as populism. But certainly, a considerable number of the poor white workers are being pushed to “death of despair,” as exemplified by increasing cases of suicide and drug addiction, due to their dismal future stemming from an economic slowdown after the 2008 global financial crisis.

Third is economic scorecards. Except for the Covid-19 period, the U.S. economy was in good shape during his first term. Workers’ income hovered over inflation, the jobless rate hit a 50-year low, and the stock market was bearish. In the Bloomberg poll, 36 percent of registered voters said the economy matters most when they vote, and 51 percent of them supported Trump over Biden at 35 percent.

Fourth is foreign policy. When he was president, the rest of the world did not suffer a massive conflict. Trump may have been lucky, or his bluffing may have worked. But after Biden was elected president, Russia invaded Ukraine, followed by the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Iran-backed Houthi rebels’ stepping up their strikes on ships in the Red Sea, China’s growing threat to invade Taiwan, and North Korea’s blackmail to launch a nuclear attack on South Korea.

Trump’s reelection will pose a big challenge to Korea. Would he really respect the Biden administration’s extended deterrence against the North’s nuclear threats? Wouldn’t Trump start to downsize the U.S. Forces Korea due to his America First mantra and demand that Seoul pay more of the defense cost, as he did during his first term? He will most likely push for it. If Trump imposes a 10 percent tariff on all imports to the U.S., it will have a huge impact on the Korean economy.

As the possibility of Trump extending his presidency to a second term grows, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration must build a network with the Trump camp in advance. The time has come for Seoul to squarely face Trump’s unceasing popularity among U.S. voters and contact his aides beforehand to safeguard the security of the country before it’s too late.