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Men in their 20s, 60s take center stage amid changing electoral demographics

Published: 09 Apr. 2024, 17:12 Updated: 09 Apr. 2024, 19:23

SHIN HA-NEE
[email protected]

Left: Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung campaigns in Incheon on March 28. Right: People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon campaigns for the party's candidate in Incheon on March 27. [YONHAP/JUN MIN-KYU]

As the general election for the 22nd National Assembly arrives, male voters in their 20s, alongside their counterparts in their 60s, have emerged as pivotal players.

Of the 300 parliamentary seats in the National Assembly, 254 are allotted for legislators representing their electoral districts, while party-list proportional representatives hold the remaining 46.

The liberal Democratic Party (DP), which has been leading in polls, expects to secure 110 to 140 seats for district representatives. On the other hand, the conservative People Power Party (PPP), aligned with President Yoon Suk Yeol, anticipates 90 to 120 seats,

For seats allotted for the proportional representation through the parallel voting system, the DP aims to clinch 10 to 13 spots, and the PPP 15 to 20.

This will bring the total seats held by the DP to 120 to 153 and the PPP to 105 to 140.

Han Byung-do, chairman of the strategic planning committee of the DP, forecast that "a voting rate of over 65 percent will work in favor” for his party during a recent radio interview, standing by the DP's previous target figure of 153 seats or more.

Meanwhile, PPP floor leader Yun Jae-ok asked voters to help the party secure "the threshold [of the minimal number of parliamentary seats] for a constitutional amendment and impeachment,” which stands at 100, saying that "a stick should not turn into a sledgehammer that may kill the cow.”

"The DP deems the situation favorable for them but is trying to avoid appearing arrogant, whereas the PPP is imploring not only its key political bases but also centrist voters to stop a landslide DP win," said Lee Jun-ho, CEO of STI, a polling agency.

Both rival parties are eyeing male voters, especially those in their 20s and over 60. While both the male voting groups demonstrated overwhelming support for President Yoon Suk Yeol during the presidential election in 2022, the PPP has been losing voters in the older generations, according to recent polls for the general election.

According to Hankook Research's survey of 5,000 respondents from March 30 to April 2, the DP was favored by all demographic groups aged between 20 and 59, except for male voters in their 20s. Of the male voters aged between 20 and 29, 32 percent responded that they would vote for the PPP, while 24 percent chose the DP. The popularity of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk's minor Rebuilding Korea Party was also the lowest among 20-something men, showing this demographic's relatively strong affiliation to the conservative aisle.

PPP Rep. Hong Suk-joon of the party’s election campaign committee said that "there are many rational criticisms by the younger generation of DP leader Lee Jae-myung and Cho Kuk as well as [DP candidates embroiled in scandals] in online communities,” adding that he is “betting on men in their 20s, who are yet to make up their minds, to rally” in support of the PPP.

However, male voters in the older age group, which has long been a firm political base for the PPP, appear to be gradually leaning away from the party.

According to the Hankook Research’s poll, 44 percent of male voters aged between 60 and 69 said they would vote for the PPP to represent their electoral districts, while 39 percent went for the DP. The rest of the voter groups aged 60 and over, including women in their 60s and those in their 70s and older, favored the PPP over the DP by a significant margin of more than 30 percentage points.

“That is because the '386 Generation’, who have aged over time, continue to lean toward the liberal side,” explained Yoon Pyung-joong, professor emeritus of political philosophy at Hanshin University.

The so-called 386 Generation, or 86 Generation, includes those born in the 1960s and attended college in the 1980s. The term was coined in the 1990s when these individuals were in their 30s. The generation is considered a key political base for the liberal DP.

"Unlike in the past, voters in their 40s to early 60s have become the mainstay for those calling to pass judgment on the Yoon administration,” said a top official from the DP.

BY KIM KI-JEONG, KANG BO-HYUN, JEON MIN-GOO AND SHIN HA-NEE [[email protected]]