As Election Day nears, South Korea faces uncertainty over U.S. policy on the North

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As Election Day nears, South Korea faces uncertainty over U.S. policy on the North

Published: 04 Nov. 2024, 11:36 Updated: 04 Nov. 2024, 11:56

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Aug. 20, 2024, and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Aug. 15, 2024, are seen in this combination of file photographs. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

With the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, the direction of America's policy on North Korea remains a consequential question for South Korea as Pyongyang continues a provocative streak with its menacing rhetoric, weapons tests, disturbing balloon launches and military cooperation with Russia.

Tuesday's election showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will come as Seoul is pushing to maintain closer cooperation with the United States to ensure a robust security posture against evolving North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

As seen in their campaign speeches, Harris and Trump are envisioning different policy approaches toward North Korea's security quandary.

Highlighting America's leadership on the global stage, Harris is expected to leverage a network of America's allies and partners to address the North Korean issue, which has taken on greater geopolitical overtones due to Pyongyang's recent troop dispatch to Russia.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, speaks at the 2024 Democratic National Convention, Aug. 22, 2024 in Chicago. [AP/YONHAP]

During her nomination speech in August, the vice president said she would not "cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un who are rooting for Trump" — remarks that hinted that if elected, she would carry out a conventional diplomatic approach rather than seeking direct diplomacy with the North Korean ruler.

Observers said that if elected, Harris would double down on bilateral and trilateral security cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, and beef up deterrence against North Korean threats, while leaving open the door for diplomacy with the recalcitrant regime.

If re-elected, Trump could seek to revive his personal diplomacy with the North Korean leader.

On the campaign trail, the former president has repeatedly boasted about his "love letters" and personal ties with Kim, even anticipating that the reclusive leader might like to see him return to office.

"I got along with him, and we stopped the missile launches from North Korea. Now, North Korea is acting up again, but when we get back, I get along with him," he said during a speech to accept the GOP presidential nomination in July.

"He'd like to see me back too. I think he misses me," he added, pointing out that it is "nice to get along with somebody who has a lot of nuclear weapons."

After Harris vowed not to "cozy up to" Kim, Trump also said that "getting along" with Kim is a "good thing" — a statement that raised the likelihood of the former president employing direct leader-to-leader diplomacy with the reclusive regime.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump participates in a fireside chat with Tucker Carlson at "Tucker Carlson Live on Tour" at Desert Diamond Arena, in Glendale, Arizona, on Oct. 31. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

During his time in office, Trump took what analysts called an unconventional "top-down" diplomatic approach to the North, leading to three meetings with Kim, including the first-ever bilateral summit in Singapore in 2018, though serious nuclear talks have been stalled since the no-deal summit in Hanoi in February 2019.

At the Hanoi summit, the North Korean leader offered to dismantle the mainstay Yongbyon nuclear complex, but Trump apparently wanted more concessions as the United States saw the complex as only one part of the North's sprawling nuclear program.

Whatever approach a new president turns to, there remains a more crucial question of whether Pyongyang would accede to diplomatic feelers from Washington.

The Biden administration has repeatedly made overtures for dialogue with Pyongyang, stressing its openness to engage with the regime "without preconditions." But the overtures have been answered only with missile tests and other provocative activities.

Observers believed that Pyongyang's appetite for reengagement with Washington might have further dwindled as it has bolstered ties with Russia and maintained the longstanding friendly partnership with China.

If nuclear negotiations with North Korea resume, bargaining could be much tougher than before given that Pyongyang is thought to have made progress in its efforts to produce and improve nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.

For Trump, expectations have lingered that if he returns to the Oval Office, he could want to write a coda — befitting his "dealmaking" finesse — to the unfinished business of addressing the North's nuclear conundrum.

If elected, Harris could be called upon to explore a more creative approach to make progress in efforts to address North Korea's security challenge as Pyongyang could test America's mettle with escalatory military activities, analysts said.

Yonhap