Fertility rate projected to reverse eight-year slide at 0.74 children per woman

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Fertility rate projected to reverse eight-year slide at 0.74 children per woman

Published: 26 Nov. 2024, 18:09

SHIN HA-NEE
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy Vice Chairman Joo Hyung-hwan speaks during a meeting of the K-ESG Alliance hosted by the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) in western Seoul on Monday. [FKI]

Korea may see its first rebound in births since 2015 this year, according to a projection by the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy.

“This year’s total fertility rate is estimated to come in at around 0.74 children per woman, higher than Statistics Korea’s initial prediction of 0.68 and last year’s 0.72 projection,” said Joo Hyung-hwan, vice chairman of the presidential committee, in his opening remarks during the Global Symposium on Low Fertility and Aging, co-hosted by Statistics Korea and the United Nations Population Fund, in central Seoul on Tuesday.

The vice chairman also expressed expectation of a rebound on Monday, saying, “The total fertility rate is estimated at around 0.74,” during a meeting of the K-ESG Alliance hosted by the Federation of Korean Industries.

Korea’s total fertility rate — the average number of children expected to be born per woman over her lifetime — has been in free fall since 2015, plunging below one for the first time in 2018 to 0.98, and reaching a record low of 0.72 last year.

The figure is one of the world’s lowest and far below the replacement rate, or the minimum needed to maintain a stable population without immigration, estimated at 2.1 births per woman.

If the rate rises this year, it will mark the first reversal of the downward trend in nine years.

Prior to Joo’s optimistic comments, the National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) presented a similar prediction.

According to NABO's Economic Outlook for next year published on Oct. 11, Korea’s total fertility rate is estimated to have bottomed out last year and is now on course for a gradual recovery starting this year to 0.74, up 0.02 from a year earlier.

“Driven by the recent recovery in the number of births, the total fertility rate is projected to rise by 0.2 children per woman this year, and continue to rise modestly through 2028,” said the NABO in the report.

However, the parliamentary office expected the scope of the rebound to remain only moderate, with the total rate hovering in the 0.7 range through 2028. The population will continue to shrink by 0.05 percent a year on average as well, as the number of deaths is expected to remain higher than the number of births.

The number of births in Korea has been on an uptrend for two consecutive months, driven by a post-pandemic increase in marriages and a base effect from last year’s dismal birthrate. The number of newborns in August rose 5.9 percent on year to 20,098, the steepest yearly growth rate for the month since the 6.1 percent logged in 2010, following a 7.9 percent jump in July.

BY SHIN HA-NEE [[email protected]]