Ahead of Trump 2.0, parties involved in Ukraine vie for favorable negotiation positions

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Ahead of Trump 2.0, parties involved in Ukraine vie for favorable negotiation positions

Published: 02 Dec. 2024, 16:48

LIM JEONG-WON
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks about the first battle with North Korean troops in a video speech on Nov. 5. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

Following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's recent appointment of a special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, a move seen as accelerating the start of an "end-of-war scenario" for the war in Ukraine, parties involved have also entered into negotiation preparation mode.

While the “land grabbing” style of fighting in Kursk, a fierce battleground in western Russia, is intensifying, the last-minute battle to gain an advantageous position in future negotiations is also becoming heated.

In an interview with Japanese news agency Kyodo News on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his position that he would agree to a cease-fire if Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is guaranteed.

During the interview, Zelensky acknowledged the necessity of finding diplomatic solutions but expanded that Kyiv would only do so once Ukraine is strong enough to deter future Russian aggression.

The idea is to regain the remaining territory through negotiations if Ukraine can suppress Russian aggression as a NATO member. Zelensky also said in an interview with British broadcaster Sky News on Friday that he could enter into cease-fire negotiations if NATO membership is approved for Ukraine.

Zelensky’s change of position, who initially said that all of the territory lost to Russia should be reclaimed, is seen as stemming from a judgment that cease-fire negotiations are imminent ahead of Trump’s second term.

The strategy is to raise the starting point of negotiations by putting Ukraine’s NATO membership proposal, which Russia is not likely to accept, on the table.

The battle between Ukraine and Russia trying to secure as much territory as possible before the start of cease-fire negotiations is also intensifying. A representative example is the Kursk region in Russia, which Ukraine took control of through a surprise attack in August.

“Zelensky’s surprise entry into Kursk in August was also a gamble with the armistice negotiations in mind for a second Trump administration,” said Hong Wan-suk, a professor of Russian studies at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies of the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “It could have been a ploy to further urge the involvement of the West including the United States.”

Meanwhile, North Korea and Russia appear to be moving even closer. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, who recently visited Pyongyang, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and invited North Korean troops to the 80th anniversary of Victory Day parade to be held in Moscow next May. With this, there is the possibility that Kim will lead a military delegation and make a visit to Russia.

The fact that Pyongyang and Moscow are already discussing schedules for next May is seen as the result of both Putin and Kim judging that mutual solidarity is the most certain way to increase their negotiating power with the U.S. ahead of Trump’s return to the White House.

On the other hand, Trump is likely to try and push Putin and Kim apart by using their negotiating power to suppress them simultaneously.

“Trump is likely to pursue negotiations related to the Ukraine war and North Korea-U.S. talks at the same time, and in the process, he may attempt to shake the Pyongyang-Moscow alliance through bilateral talks,” said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “North Korea and Russia may have discussed measures to check such strategy during Belousov’s visit to Pyongyang this time.”

As the North Korean military’s level of involvement in the war increases during the process of deepening North Korea-Russia ties, Ukraine is also strengthening its information war offensive.

On Saturday, Ukrainian news media Euromaidan Press claimed that the North Korean antitank weapon Bulase-4 was destroyed by Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade in the Kharkiv Oblast.

Zelensky also said in the interview with Kyodo News that North Korean troops dispatched to western Russia were killed or injured during the battle, and that more North Korean troops will be deployed to the front lines and used as “cannon fodder” for the Russian military.

Ukraine's expansion of the scope of its exposed intelligence is seen as a warning to North Korea not to send additional troops, while also requesting immediate support from the West, including South Korea.

American business magazine Forbes reported in an online article on Saturday that North Korea provided Russia with 100 of its main artillery systems, including the latest 240 mm multiple rocket launchers, citing Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

South Korea’s potential responses to the war in Ukraine have also become more complicated. After the recent visit to Seoul by the Ukrainian presidential delegation, the key is to appropriately adjust the level of support while receiving a list of requests for arms support.

The possibility of South Korea securing a share in the reconstruction projects after the war ends is also a point to consider.

Above all, the key is to devise effective methods to minimize the provision of countermeasures, such as North Korea’s acquisition of combat experience and Russia’s military technology support, which could immediately pose a military threat to South Korea.

BY PARK HYUN-JU, LIM JEONG-WON [[email protected]]