Don’t rush to take a side in tough times
Published: 02 Dec. 2024, 19:36
YOU SANG-CHUL
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.
China has become much softer. For example, the country has allowed visa-free entry to Koreans since Aug. 8. It is a unilateral move, not reciprocal, and is the first measure in 32 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992. After two weeks, China extended the visa-free stay duration from 15 days to 30 days and added “exchanging visit” to the list of purposes like tourism, business and visiting relatives.
China is not only showing goodwill to Korea. It is also sending a sign of reconciliation to Japan.
China is trying to minimize the conflict over the territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands — or Diaoyudao Islands in Chinese — with Japan. China also expressed its intention to move the buoys installed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. That’s not all. China admitted its military aircraft’s violation of Japanese airspace in August, followed by a decision to allow Japanese citizens to enter the country visa-free. China is no longer using “wolf warrior diplomacy.” Trump’s upcoming return lies underneath the country’s change.
It seems that China is trying to manage relationships with neighbors in response to the shock of Trump 2.0. But some experts analyze that China could break the deadlock in the U.S.-China relationship in some cases. On Nov. 22, the Jeju Peace Institute held a seminar on the prospect of China’s situation and the development of Korea-China relations. To resolve domestic issues like high youth unemployment and economic downturn, a stable U.S.-China relationship is essential.
But if Trump’s pressure increases and a sense of crisis management failure deepens in China, Beijing could drive the U.S.-China relationship toward a catastrophe. Some in China say that in the worst case scenario, China could take a hard-line stance reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis between the United States and the Soviet Union in order to have Washington truly understand its red line.
Chinese President Xi Jinping dreams to become a global leader beyond the boundaries of China. Unlike the defensive stance during Trump’s first term, Xi may become more confident and aggressive when he meets Trump again. At any rate, America and China are expected to have a fierce contest after the launch of Trump’s second administration in January. The problem is how Korea should act. Some raise their voices and argue that Korea must show a clear stance rather than sitting on the fence.
They claim that clarity is needed more than strategic ambiguity. In other words, they demand Korea side with the United States. But we must remember that the United States was the first to make a deal with China without letting other countries know after persistently leading international sanctions against China at the time of the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. There is no need for Korea to make the foolish mistake of hastily taking a side.
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.
China has become much softer. For example, the country has allowed visa-free entry to Koreans since Aug. 8. It is a unilateral move, not reciprocal, and is the first measure in 32 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992. After two weeks, China extended the visa-free stay duration from 15 days to 30 days and added “exchanging visit” to the list of purposes like tourism, business and visiting relatives.
China is not only showing goodwill to Korea. It is also sending a sign of reconciliation to Japan.
China is trying to minimize the conflict over the territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands — or Diaoyudao Islands in Chinese — with Japan. China also expressed its intention to move the buoys installed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. That’s not all. China admitted its military aircraft’s violation of Japanese airspace in August, followed by a decision to allow Japanese citizens to enter the country visa-free. China is no longer using “wolf warrior diplomacy.” Trump’s upcoming return lies underneath the country’s change.
It seems that China is trying to manage relationships with neighbors in response to the shock of Trump 2.0. But some experts analyze that China could break the deadlock in the U.S.-China relationship in some cases. On Nov. 22, the Jeju Peace Institute held a seminar on the prospect of China’s situation and the development of Korea-China relations. To resolve domestic issues like high youth unemployment and economic downturn, a stable U.S.-China relationship is essential.
But if Trump’s pressure increases and a sense of crisis management failure deepens in China, Beijing could drive the U.S.-China relationship toward a catastrophe. Some in China say that in the worst case scenario, China could take a hard-line stance reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis between the United States and the Soviet Union in order to have Washington truly understand its red line.
Chinese President Xi Jinping dreams to become a global leader beyond the boundaries of China. Unlike the defensive stance during Trump’s first term, Xi may become more confident and aggressive when he meets Trump again. At any rate, America and China are expected to have a fierce contest after the launch of Trump’s second administration in January. The problem is how Korea should act. Some raise their voices and argue that Korea must show a clear stance rather than sitting on the fence.
They claim that clarity is needed more than strategic ambiguity. In other words, they demand Korea side with the United States. But we must remember that the United States was the first to make a deal with China without letting other countries know after persistently leading international sanctions against China at the time of the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. There is no need for Korea to make the foolish mistake of hastily taking a side.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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