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A geopolitical mindset to deal with North Korea

Published: 04 Dec. 2024, 19:36

Kim Byung-yeon
The author is a chair professor of economics at Seoul National University.

What can come of denuclearizing North Korea under Trump 2.0? Will the issue ever get the full attention of Washington amid ongoing engagements with Russia, the Middle East and China? If Donald Trump does get around to finishing the work hanging from his first presidency, the talks could end in a theatrical dealmaking centered on nuclear arms control instead of persuading Pyongyang to go nuclear-free.

Amid the abundance of concerns, there are yet some grounds for hope. Trump’s unorthodox ways could somehow work on Pyongyang to pivot toward denuclearization. The North Korea-U.S. relationship could be mended and help ease the warlike tensions between the two Koreas. All these are possible as well as uncertain.

How to behold the geopolitical context and find a peaceful solution to North Korean problems are entirely up to us. Instead of waiting around for the United States to come up with corresponding responses, we must take pre-emptive actions to influence the decisions of the incoming Trump administration. The time calls for strategic endeavors to lay the grounds favorable to our interests.

The North Korean issue is deeply interwoven with geopolitics. The Russia-Ukraine War developments have serious implications for the Korean Peninsula. If North Korean involvement in the lengthened war deepens, South Korea will inevitably be drawn into the conflict.

Pitting the two Koreas against one another in a proxy war can be hazardous for both states. The safest scenario is an early end to the war. But if the war ends in Putin’s favor, the closeness of Pyongyang and Moscow could be perpetuated with few options to break it up.

An understaffed Russia could invite thousands of North Korean workers to help with postwar rehabilitation. The fattened coffers with the windfall revenue will keep North Korean leader Kim Jong-un happy enough to have little appetite for denuclearization talks. He would not care if the relationship with the South is further impaired. Democracy-minded countries will have to find the optimal solution to end the war as soon as possible without a clear victory for Putin’s Russia. Seoul would have to deliberate hard on what role it can play to stage such outcome.

A dangerous scenario is a fallout between Trump and European NATO countries. If a fast conclusion of the war is a priority, Washington may roll back or stop assistance to Ukraine to end the war in Putin’s triumph.

The heart is beating, but there are no muscles left, policymakers in Europe said while describing NATO’s slothfulness. Seoul must hasten summit talks with the incoming U.S. president to explain the dangers of the intimacy between Pyongyang and Moscow and why the return of North Korean soldiers should be a prerequisite to ceasefire talks. It must make Trump see how geopolitical risks can be eased when North Korea — a small yet volatile plate — is removed from the colossal Russian tectonics.

Washington’s grinding machine against China will likely be worked up to the fullest under Trump 2.0. The tariff hikes on Chinese imports under the first Trump presidency brought Pyongyang and Beijing closer as the latter used the former as a leverage against Washington. North Korea’s geopolitical value will go up under an intensified conflict between Washington and Pyongyang under Trump 2.0. In that case, Beijing could choose to interfere with the denuclearization path for the North.

Pyongyang could fully capitalize on the warlike environment to build up the rationale for domestic and international audiences to master a nuclear weapons program. As a result, Seoul would have to rely more on the U.S. deterrence and can’t afford to improve ties with Beijing. Seoul will find itself dangerously treading on the strained tightrope between Washington and Beijing. Does Seoul have any strategy to break out of the conundrum? How can it solve North Korean issues for national interest while defending the values of freedom and democracy?

First of all, Seoul must bulk up to raise its strategic weight. It must stop acting like a shrimp sandwiched between two big whales and expand its maneuvering latitude. Given its national resources, South Korea fits a shark-like class.

South Korea, just like China, has the ability to mass-produce high-tech products across the board. That’s why the country is a must-include for the U.S. strategy to carve out China from global value chains in highly advanced manufacturing and high-tech sectors.

Since South Korea shares common values with the United States, the relationship with the country serves its interests better than one with China. Seoul must try to persuade Washington to regard its rivalry with Beijing in a farsighted perspective through strengthen U.S. competitiveness instead of waging a tit-for-tat tariff war. It must also pitch the importance of Korea’s role in the process so that Washington can devise a strategy on China and North Korea through a simultaneous equation. We are bound to see little fruit if Trump addresses North Korea and China separately — as he did in his first term — or if he pushes back North Korean issues after dealing with China first as he has done so far.

Cooperation with Japan is a necessity — not a choice — to ride across the common geopolitical tide. If the two neighbors join security forces, they can deter their common military threat and effectively cope with contingency. When the two unite their economic capabilities, they can contain the unfair practices of Washington and Beijing and efficiently stabilize supply chains. We must work with Japan to survive the tumultuous times while trying to work out historical issues in an outspread context.

Korea has ascended to the upper ranks in the global scale. It must try to see things with a broader spectrum from a high level. The test on North Korean denuclearization falls in the geopolitical category. We must put on a strategic mindset to see through the new Trumpian era.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.