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Hope and skepticism surround Trump's approach to North Korea ahead of inauguration

Published: 06 Dec. 2024, 11:15

US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, DC on November 13, 2024. [POOL/AFP/YONHAP]

Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month, both hope and skepticism linger over the question of how he would deal with North Korea's nuclear quandary that has bedeviled past administrations.

Brightening the prospects for reengagement with Pyongyang are Trump's selection of Alex Wong, a former North Korea policy official, as a key White House advisor and his transition team's reported discussions on direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

But questions linger over whether Trump can prioritize North Korea when Washington is preoccupied with other global challenges, including Russia's protracted war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, not to mention a deepening Sino-U.S. rivalry.

Whether Pyongyang would respond to any diplomatic feelers from Washington remains an open question as the regime's appetite for dialogue with the United States could have diminished further given its deepening and broadening cooperation with Moscow.

Stephen Biegun, former U.S. deputy secretary of state and top nuclear negotiator, speaks during a forum hosted by The Korea Society on Nov. 12. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

"President Trump has stated that he plans to get along with North Korea so it is very possible that he will reach out to Kim Jong-un and seek to restart negotiations. However, the dynamics on the Peninsula today are different than in 2018," Frank Aum, a former senior Pentagon advisor on Korea, told Yonhap News Agency via email.

"North Korea has more leverage due to Russian support, North Korea already feels skeptical about engaging with the United States regardless of who is in power, and it is unclear whether President Trump will change U.S. goals or engagement tactics," he added.

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly boasted about the "love letters" from Kim and his personal ties with him, raising the prospects for reengagement with the North. He also said that "getting along" with the North Korean leader is a "good thing."

In a photo book published in September, Trump said that his summitry with Kim during his presidency showed that "real change" was "indeed" possible, portraying it as "honest, direct and productive."

Kim Jong-un delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of an arms exhibition titled ″National Defense Development-2024,″ in Pyongyang. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]

Trump had three in-person meetings with Kim, including the first summit in Singapore in 2018. Since the no-deal summit in Hanoi in 2019, meaningful nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have been stalled.

Observers said that Trump's choice of Wong, who was engaged in working-level nuclear talks with North Korea during his first term, as his principal deputy national security adviser bodes well for the resumption of diplomacy with the North.

Wong served as the deputy special representative for North Korea and the deputy assistant secretary for North Korea in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the Department of State when Trump was in office.

Adding to expectations for diplomacy with the North was last month's report by Reuters that Trump's transition team has been discussing pursuing direct talks with the North Korean leader in the hopes that a fresh diplomatic drive can ease the risks of armed conflict.

Citing two sources, Reuters noted that the policy discussions are "fluid" and no final decisions have been made by the president-elect.

Former Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who served as the top nuclear envoy during the first Trump administration, also talked of possible engagement between Trump and Kim.

"I do think there will be some engagements," Biegun said during a forum hosted by The Korea Society last month.

"It's not the top priority ... although [Trump] has addressed it even in the course of the campaign with some references to North Korea and to his personal like for Kim Jong-un that wouldn't have been lost on the North Koreans either."

Aum pointed out that Trump's "unconventional" approach to diplomacy seemed effective in at least bringing North Korea to the table though challenges remain.

"The question is whether Trump can offer a new approach that overcomes the disagreements from the previous round of negotiations and whether he can reconcile the disparate views on how to deal with North Korea within his own administration and with his South Korean ally," the scholar said.

Skepticism has emerged as the deepening military alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang — manifested in the North's troop dispatch to support Russia's war in Ukraine — has emerged as a major factor for the U.S. to consider.

What's worse, Pyongyang has shown little interest in talks with Washington. It has rejected repeated offers by the Biden administration to engage in dialogue "without preconditions."

"We have already gone to every length in negotiations with the U.S., and what was certain from the outcome was ... the unchanging invasive and hostile policy toward North Korea," North Korean leader Kim said in a speech delivered at a defense exhibition in Pyongyang last month.

However, attention is turning to the future course of relations between the United States and the North given that Trump, noted for his dealmaking finesse, might try to complete the unfinished business of addressing the North Korean conundrum.

Yonhap