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Trump's new world order unlikely to punish Korea, insiders say

Published: 08 Dec. 2024, 13:11 Updated: 09 Dec. 2024, 18:16

MICHAEL LEE
[email protected]

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends a gathering in Paris on Saturday. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

WASHINGTON — Officials in diplomatic circles in the U.S. capital have told the Korea JoongAng Daily that President-elect Donald Trump is unlikely to jettison joint measures with Seoul that advance American geopolitical and economic interests if his South Korean counterpart is keen to continue them as well.

Although little can be predicted with certainty regarding the policy direction of Trump’s second administration, Washington insiders believe that his team would likely recognize the benefit of maintaining the bilateral security measures established by current U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, such as the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group.

The atmosphere among sources at the World Bank, Politico, the Hudson Institute, the American-German Institute and others who spoke under condition of anonymity in meetings organized by the Konrad Adenaeur Foundation was one of cautious acceptance of some degree of unpredictability in the U.S. president-elect’s foreign policy direction.

Media observers of the ongoing presidential transition in Washington have also noted that Seoul’s efforts to foster ties with the incoming administration conspicuously surpass those of other nations, with one foreign correspondent describing the South Korean charm offensive as being “head and shoulders above everyone else.”

The same correspondent observed that South Korean outreach to the presidential transition team highly resembles the example set by late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was the first international leader to meet Trump in New York after his first victory in the 2016 presidential election.

Although Trump blamed Japan for the U.S. trade deficit during his first campaign, Abe’s decision to meet with him early was followed by an unusually close relationship between the pair, which South Korean government interlocutors have been keen to replicate between Yoon and Trump.

President Yoon Suk Yeol bows his head as he makes a public apology in a televised address from the Yongsan presidential office in Seoul on Saturday. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

While Yoon’s political future remains unclear after an impeachment vote against him failed in the National Assembly on Saturday, the mood among Washington insiders is that they expect various forms of cooperation between Seoul and Washington that were institutionalized during the Biden administration will continue under the incoming Trump administration.

One conservative policy expert with connections to the Republican Party and the incoming administration said that Trump’s foreign counterparts could establish a positive relationship with him by treating him “with respect” both in private and public communications.

Officials in diplomatic circles also believe that Seoul’s previously stated ambition to act as a “global pivotal state” meshes well with Washington’s — and Trump’s — desire to see partner countries and allies take more initiative and responsibility in resolving issues in their regions.

In the same vein, the policy expert noted that the United States under Trump would not “value European security more than Europeans themselves,” referring to the failure of several NATO members to abide by the organization’s guideline to spend at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense.

The halting optimism expressed by Washington insiders regarding the future of South Korea-U.S. ties under Trump is striking given Seoul’s barely concealed concerns regarding his previous characterization of the counrty as a “money-making machine” that should shoulder more of the cost of hosting U.S. troops on its soil.

Those who spoke to the Korea JoongAng Daily said they anticipate his antipathy to traditional multilateralism — as represented by the United Nations and NATO — is unlikely to extend to smaller groupings of security partners whose interests align with those of the United States, such as Aukus and trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan, and whose cooperation would spread the burden of countering China.

Trump has announced traditional Republican hawks on China, such as Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Michael Walz of Florida, as his nominees for secretary of state and national security advisor, as well as individuals with less discernible foreign policy leanings, such as Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York and former acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, as U.S. ambassadors to the United Nations and NATO.

Officials at international financial organizations based in Washington believe that the United States under Trump would not immediately target global institutions where U.S. interests and values are better represented than in alternatives set up by China, such as the Asia Investment and Infrastructure Bank.

However, business and policy insiders with previous experience dealing with Trump’s first administration cautioned that Washington from 2025 would likely not pursue “multilateralism for multilateralism’s sake,” referring to joint accords and policy initiatives where Trump believes accommodating the disparate interests of many different countries is damaging to U.S. economic interests.

BY MICHAEL LEE [[email protected]]