President Yoon just got impeached. Now what?

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President Yoon just got impeached. Now what?

Published: 14 Dec. 2024, 17:02 Updated: 14 Dec. 2024, 17:24

YOON SO-YEON
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during an address at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul, on Nov. 27. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

The first step to impeaching President Yoon Suk Yeol has finally come to a close.

The National Assembly passed the impeachment prosecution of Yoon at the plenary meeting held Saturday in western Seoul, bringing the first half of the journey to impeach the president to a close.

The parliamentary decision comes a week and a half after Yoon declared emergency martial law on Dec. 3, which was subsequently revoked just six hours later following a National Assembly vote to lift the order. Yoon narrowly avoided impeachment last Saturday after the vast majority of his People Power Party (PPP) successfully sabotaged the vote by literally walking out of the hall.

This time, PPP lawmakers — albeit very few — heeded the call of the people and voted for the impeachment, passing on the presidential impeachment prosecution to the Constitutional Court. It is now up to the Constitutional Court to decide the future of the country.

Lawmakers leave the main chamber of the National Assembly after National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik declared that the vote on the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol would not be held due to insufficient quorum at the plenary session on Dec. 7. [YONHAP]

Why didn’t it happen the first time?

The first motion to impeach Yoon narrowly missed the 200-vote benchmark required to begin the impeachment process, thanks in large part to the walk-out boycott organized by the PPP. In the end, a total of 195 lawmakers — 192 from the opposition comprised of the Democratic Party (DP), five minority parties and two independent lawmakers — and the three PPP members voted in favor of impeachment. The failure to garner a two-thirds majority nulled the whole item.

The opposition party halted efforts to convince PPP members to vote and the motion was closed at around 9 p.m. Dec. 7. The crowd, which had already been gathering outside the National Assembly building in western Seoul since the afternoon, protested the PPP’s boycott and demanded that Yoon be impeached immediately.

Many people — according to some polls nearly 75 percent — have been calling for Yoon’s impeachment since the very moment he declared martial law on Dec. 3.

Protesters call for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment at a rally held in Jeju Island on Dec. 13. [YONHAP]

Across the country, rallies have been held every day since Dec. 4 and organizations from all fields have been releasing official statements opposing Yoon’s presidency. A recent poll by Gallup Korea, which took place from Dec. 6 and 7 against 1,000 adults in Korea, showed that 74 percent of people were in favor of the president’s impeachment and only 23 percent were against it.

President Yoon will be suspended from his duties from the moment the National Assembly passes the impeachment motion until the Constitutional Court gives its ruling. If this happens, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, will sit as acting president. If Han is impeached, the next in line is Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, followed by Education Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Lee Ju-ho.

If the two deputy prime ministers are impeached, then the next ministers in line are: Science and ICT, Foreign Affairs, Unification, Justice, National Defense (which is vacant at the moment), Interior and Safety (also vacant), Patriots and Veteran Affairs, Culture, Sports and Tourism.

Yoon will not have to vacate his presidential residence immediately but will be asked to leave if the Constitutional Court rules to impeach him as the president of Korea.

President Yoon Suk Yeol praying on Nov. 22 in central Seoul [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

What will happen now?

The Constitutional Court will now begin the reviewing process of the prosecution passed by the National Assembly.

Legally, the Constitutional Court has 180 days to decide on a ruling. If the court were to take the full duration, a ruling would expected around June 11 of next year. However, looking back at former presidents Roh Moo-hyun's and Park Geun-hye's impeachment cases, the court will likely move quickly so a decision might come as early as a few months.

It took the Constitutional Court just two months — from March 12, 2004, when the National Assembly passed the impeachment motion, to May 14, 2004, when the Constitutional Court gave its ruling — to resolve Roh's case. It took three months — from Dec. 9, 2016, to March 10, 2017 — for Park to be impeached.

If Yoon is officially impeached, Korea may be heading to the polls to vote for a new president early next year.

Graphic for President Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment timeline for Dec. 14 [KOREA JOONGANG DAILY]

How are things at the Constitutional Court?

When the baton is passed to the Constitutional Court, which is typically filled with nine judges — three recommended by the National Assembly, three by the president and three designated by the chief justice of the Supreme Court — at least seven justices need to start reviewing the motion to make a final decision.

At least six out of these seven justices then need to approve the motion for final impeachment.

Since Oct. 17 the current Constitutional Court has only had six justices because the three Assembly-recommended seats were not filled due to political conflict between the ruling and opposition parties.

Constitutional Court judges on Dec. 10 [NEWS1]

Can a ruling come from a six-member Constitutional Court?

The Constitutional Court put a temporary halt to Article 23 of the Constitutional Court Act that requires the attendance of seven or more judges to review an item, meaning it would be legal for only six judges to review the impeachment motion — but not make the ruling.

The National Assembly will therefore need to add at least one more judge to complete the impeachment process.

The DP recommended judges Jeong Gye-seon and Ma Eun-hyeok as new members of the Constitutional Court. The PPP also put forward a recommendation, Cho Han-chang, as an addition to the Constitutional Court.

President Yoon Suk Yeol takes a bow to the public at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul, on Nov. 7. [YONHAP]

The president still needs to approve the appointment of a new Constitutional Court justice, which will be done by Prime Minister Han in the case of Yoon’s absence.

The DP said it will pass the Constitutional Court judge appointment items at a plenary meeting within the year.

What happens if Yoon is impeached?

A presidential election would take place within 60 days if the Constitutional Court decides to impeach the president. Yoon will regain power if the court rules against impeachment.

The 19th presidential election, when former president Moon Jae-in was voted in, took place on May 9, 2017, two months after Park was impeached. Moon took office the very next day.

The 21st presidential election was originally scheduled to take place on March 3, 2027, after Yoon’s five-year term.

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks at a conference held on Nov. 22 in central Seoul. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

What happens if Yoon is not impeached?

As difficult as it is to foretell the future, it is possible that the Constitutional Court’s decision will not align with the people’s calling.

Should the Constitutional Court decide not to impeach Yoon, then he will immediately return to his duties.

It took former president Roh 63 days to return to office after the Constitutional Court turned his impeachment down. The days that he was suspended were counted into his 5-year term and did not push the next election date.

Protesters call for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment at a rally held in front of the National Assembly in western Seoul on Dec. 13. [YONHAP]

How much power does an acting president have?

The law doesn't clearly state the boundaries of an acting president's power, but a rough consensus from the academic field is that the power is limited to maintaining the status quo. Simply put, the law wouldn't exactly say no, but politics would.

The most likely scenario in which the acting president's power comes into question would be if they try to veto an item passed by the National Assembly that Yoon had vetoed in the past.

Yoon turned down a revision to the Grain Management Act, which is one of the six bills that were passed in the plenary session on Friday. If not vetoed by the president by Dec. 21, they go into effect six months later.

The issue of filling vacant of high-ranking official positions is also likely to become a source of political conflict.

Protesters call for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment at a rally held in front of the National Assembly in western Seoul on Dec. 13. [NEWS1]

Can the criminal investigation against Yoon stop the Constitutional Court review?

According to Article 51 of the Constitutional Court Act, the Constitutional Court can cease the review process of the impeachment prosecution if the defendant is being investigated for the same allegations.

For instance, the impeachment prosecution of Son Jun-sung, the deputy chief prosecutor of the Daegu High Prosecutors Office, was passed by the National Assembly on Dec. 1, 2023, but the Constitutional Court decided to halt the review because he was being investigated for the same allegation of leaking official secrets and violating the personal information protection law.

Yoon, if he is indicted for on criminal charges and handed to the court, can request that his case to be suspended by the Constitutional Court, which will make a decision on whether or not to continue reviewing his impeachment.

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung on Dec. 14 at the National Assembly [YONHAP]

If Korea holds an early election next year, can DP leader Lee Jae-myung be elected despite his criminal court case?

According to Article 84 of the Constitutional Law, the president cannot be "charged with a criminal offense during his tenure of office except for insurrection or treason."

So if Lee is elected president, then it is likely that the criminal cases against him are halted, but not while he is running for presidency. If he is found guilty before he is elected, his candidacy can be canceled even it is formalized 24 days before the election as dictated by the law.

But the political pressure that will be put upon the shoulders of the justices of Supreme Court, one of whom typically double as the commissioners of the National Election Commission, is likely to postpone a court ruling until after the presidential election is over.

BY YOON SO-YEON [[email protected]]