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Korea's diplomacy puzzle ahead of Trump 2.0

Published: 18 Dec. 2024, 19:43

Chung Jae-hong
The author is the international, diplomatic and security news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.

Korea finds itself in a precarious position, leaderless as its president remains suspended from office pending a court verdict on legislative impeachment, while its key ally, the United States, prepares to return to Donald Trump’s leadership on Jan. 20. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed interim control of state affairs, but his authority cannot rival that of a sitting president, particularly in foreign and security matters where summit-level connections are critical. Trump’s return to the presidency presents significant challenges for Korea, given his transactional approach to diplomacy, even with allies, and his penchant for tariff threats. It is imperative for both the Cabinet and the legislature to ensure consistency in foreign and security policy while avoiding diplomatic missteps that could weaken Korea’s external posture.

Seoul must remain steadfast in its alliance with the United States, which serves as the cornerstone of its foreign and security policies. The presence of U.S. forces has historically alleviated fears of domestic upheaval, such as martial law scenarios. While most Koreans support the alliance, the dynamics could shift under a second Trump administration. The President-elect has signaled intentions to demand a tenfold increase in Seoul’s financial contributions for hosting American troops, threatening troop reductions or withdrawals if Seoul refuses. Some experts suggest preemptively offering to increase Korea’s cost share or making substantial purchases of American agricultural products and weapons to appease Trump’s transactional nature.

However, former Vice Foreign Minister Ahn Ho-young, who served as ambassador to the United States during Trump’s first term and under the impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye, cautions against such pre-emptive concessions. Speaking at a Korea Peace Foundation forum on Dec. 11, Ahn argued that a generous offer could reinforce Trump’s perception of Korea as a “money machine” and embolden him to raise demands further. Ahn expressed confidence in Seoul’s ability to handle Trump’s tactics, citing prior experience navigating threats to terminate the bilateral FTA, impose tariffs on steel and electronics and demand steep increases in Korea’s financial contribution to U.S. troop costs.

Equally important for Seoul is maintaining amicable ties with Tokyo. The Democratic Party (DP) has derided President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conciliatory approach toward Japan as humiliatingly submissive. However, the adversarial stance toward Japan under DP President Moon Jae-in strained South Korea’s alliance with the United States and restricted its diplomatic flexibility. Tokyo's robust networks in Washington, coupled with the United States’ prioritization of its relationship with Japan, underscore the strategic necessity of Seoul-Tokyo cooperation. Neglecting this partnership would be a strategic misstep, especially given the potential opportunities for collaboration in addressing challenges posed by Trump’s second term.

The DP’s first impeachment motion against Yoon has criticized his “bizarre” foreign policy, which prioritizes Japan while distancing North Korea, China and Russia under a values-based diplomatic framework. Harry Harris, the former U.S. ambassador to South Korea during Trump’s first presidency, underscored the importance of continued cooperation between the United States, Korea and Japan, warning that Yoon’s impeachment could negatively impact Korea-Japan relations. The DP removed this sentence in the second impeachment motion.

While prioritizing the alliance with the United States, Seoul must not neglect Beijing, its largest trading partner. Trump’s return could complicate Korea’s outreach to Beijing, but stable relations with China are essential for both Korea’s economic well-being and national security. Yoon’s recent remarks when declaring martial law — linking cheap Chinese solar panels to environmental degradation and criticizing the DP's legislative activities and resistance to the anti-espionage bill by the People Power Party (PPP) — provoked a sharp rebuke from the Chinese foreign ministry. Seoul must exercise greater discretion in handling sensitive issues with Beijing.

The inter-Korean relationship also requires prudence. Yoon’s administration has maintained a hard-line stance, punishing North Korea for its nuclear and missile provocations. However, under the acting presidency, Seoul should consider halting actions such as the dissemination of anti-Pyongyang leaflets or border broadcasts to avoid escalating tensions. Previous carrot-and-stick approaches toward Pyongyang have largely failed. Focusing on peaceful coexistence, setting aside unification as a near-term goal, may yield better results.

The government must convincingly demonstrate to the international community that state governance remains steady and functional despite the impeachment crisis. Korea must navigate these turbulent times with strategic foresight, balancing alliances, regional diplomacy and domestic stability.