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Trilateral cooperation to continue despite shift from multilateralism under Trump 2.0, say experts

Published: 21 Dec. 2024, 07:00

MICHAEL LEE
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 16. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

NEW YORK — United Nations insiders and observers believe U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House would likely result in a further shift in U.S. foreign policy from multilateralism to smaller focus groups, such Korea and Japan.

The incoming Trump administration’s expected inward focus on dealing with migration and economic issues is also likely to diminish U.S. involvement at the UN and other international organizations, according to experts from global policy think tanks who spoke to the Korea JoongAng Daily on condition of anonymity in meetings organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

The same experts said bilateral and trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo would likely continue because such efforts help project U.S. power in Northeast Asia.

However, they said the expected move in U.S. attention away from engagement at the UN would likely hamper South Korea’s efforts to spur the UN Security Council to take collective action against the North’s development of illicit weapons and its recent deployment of troops to Russia to fight in Ukraine.

One longtime UN official said Trump’s return to the White House will likely compound gridlock and inaction at the organization, which he said faces its “most difficult” time in decades.

The official attributed the UN’s inability to rein in tensions to major powers flouting international law in a pattern of behavior that he characterized as designed to undermine global political architecture.

Such actions include the Russian veto against extending the panel of experts that advised the Security Council on the state of sanctions enforcement against North Korea, which is the target of multiple punitive resolutions adopted by the council with support from Moscow in the past.

However, one analyst also argued that Trump’s comments and past behavior suggest he would also likely weaken multilateral institutions such as the UN and NATO, as well as the credibility of U.S. security commitments to its allies.

He likewise predicted that the possibility of meaningful dialogue between the United States and longtime foes, such as Iran and North Korea, would decrease upon Trump’s return to office.

Experts who spoke to the Korea JoongAng Daily added China and Russia could be emboldened to push international law to a breaking point during the expected vacuum in U.S. leadership at international forums under Trump.

Smaller nations are likely to suffer the consequences of U.S. disengagement at the UN, they said.

The main entrance at United Nations headquarters in New York on Sept. 22. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Heightened tensions between the Security Council’s most powerful players have also diminished space for the UN to help manage conflicts, according to the veteran official who spoke to the Korea JoongAng Daily.

He noted that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was instrumental in organizing Black Sea grain shipments to help lower food prices despite hostilities between Ukraine and Russia.

UN officials and observers are also anxious that the Trump administration could reduce U.S. funding to the organization, further hampering its efforts in peacekeeping and mediating tensions.

Another analyst predicted that the chaos that is likely to ensue between clashing elements within the Trump administration could inhibit the formation of a coherent U.S. approach toward the UN.

He added that the direction of Washington’s foreign policy under Trump will depend much on who inside the incoming administration ultimately wins the contest to prove their loyalty to Trump and the attendant influence over his decision-making process.

For example, if Sen. Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, successfully jockeys for control over U.S. foreign policy, the expert predicted that Washington would be less likely to cede its influence at the UN if China was seen as the main beneficiary.

Like Rubio, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has advocated for a pivot in Washington’s security and foreign policy to Asia.

However, Vance has also argued this shift would likely require the United States to pay less attention to Europe, particularly Ukraine's defense.

While diplomats who work with the UN have called that prospect “concerning,” they also said they are taking a “wait and see” approach to the incoming Trump administration.

BY MICHAEL LEE [[email protected]]