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Trump's return raises questions over U.S.-South Korea relations as Seoul faces political turmoil

Published: 26 Dec. 2024, 10:54

President-elect Donald Trump speaks at AmericaFest on Dec. 22, 2024, in Phoenix. [AP/YONHAP]

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming return to office and the political turmoil in South Korea are fueling uncertainty over the relationship between Seoul and Washington as evolving North Korean threats and other shared challenges call for tighter cooperation.

Trump is set to take office on Jan. 20, seeking to reorient Washington's foreign and security policy under his America First credo that many say will see the United States curtail its costly overseas involvement and prod allies and partners into undertaking greater security responsibilities.

The political turmoil in the wake of President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law imposition and his subsequent impeachment is raising questions over whether Seoul can push for timely and effective high-level engagement with the incoming U.S. administration.

Striving to address the emerging questions, Seoul and Washington have stressed their steadfast commitment to the bilateral alliance.

People attend a rally calling for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over his short-lived martial law imposition. [YONHAP]

In a phone call last week, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed to hold an in-person meeting at an early date as part of efforts to underline the strength of the alliance. But uncertainty lingers over the trajectory of the bilateral relationship under the incoming U.S. president.

"The incoming Trump administration is focused on geoeconomic rivalry with China, while President Yoon's impeachment has weakened South Korea's influence. North Korea is keen to profit from its relationship with Russia but might pivot to bargaining with the United States if a cease-fire in Ukraine emerges," Patrick Cronin, the chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said.

"Cosmetic diplomacy may be sufficient for all political actors concerned as governments grapple with their internal challenges. The best opportunity for U.S.-South Korean relations in 2025 may be doing business deals, from semiconductors and energy to shipbuilding and aerospace," he added.

Trump's inauguration will come at a time when there is no fully elected president in South Korea as the National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon on Dec. 14, suspending him from presidential duties until the Constitutional Court decides whether to reinstate or remove him from office.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has taken over as acting president, but questions have continued over whether he will effectively conduct summit diplomacy with the United States, particularly when leader-to-leader chemistry is crucial in addressing North Korea's nuclear quandary and other issues of mutual concern.

"Once they come into office, [the Trump administration] will be moving very quickly on everything from tariffs to diplomacy to Ukraine, possibly to North Korea, to China," Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a recent interview with Yonhap News Agency.

"And for there not to be a fully elected new administration in South Korea on the back end of the current crisis, I think [it] is quite disadvantageous to South Korea."

Cha anticipated that when Trump returns to the Oval Office, he might try to pare down the number of some 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea and roll out tariffs against the Asian ally considering South Korea's trade surplus with the United States.

"It is very difficult to have those sorts of really paradigm shifting discussions and conversations when you don't have a government sort of firmly in place, when Korea is in the middle of this very serious, fundamental political crisis," Cha said.

Trump's pressure on allies appears to have already begun as his team has told European officials that he will demand North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, according to the Financial Times.

Currently, NATO has a guideline calling for member states to commit 2 percent of GDP to defense spending that was agreed upon by NATO leaders in 2014.

The report added to speculation that Trump could call for renegotiation of a new defense cost-sharing deal with South Korea, called the Special Measures Agreement (SMA).

Military helicopters at Camp Humphreys, a sprawling U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek. [YONHAP]

In October, Seoul and Washington struck the 12th SMA to determine Seoul's share of the cost for the stationing of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). Under the deal that will last through 2030, Seoul is to pay 1.52 trillion won ($1.04 billion) in 2026, up from 1.4 trillion won in 2025.

After the conclusion of SMA negotiations, Trump said in a campaign speech that South Korea would be paying $10 billion a year for the stationing of USFK if he was in the White House. He also described the Asian ally as a "money machine."

Security challenges from North Korea are one of the key areas that require a coordinated response from Seoul and Washington.

Many expect that Trump might seek to rekindle his direct diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un given that he boasted about his personal ties with the reclusive dynastic ruler.

However observers raised the possibility that Seoul could be sidelined or bypassed in the process of high-level engagement between the United States and the North should there not be close coordination between the South and the United States.

"I think even when there were sitting presidents in place [in South Korea], there were always concerns that Trump would go over the heads of the allies. Even when things are normal, that's a concern," Cha said.

On diplomacy between the United States and the North, doubts have persisted over whether Pyongyang would accede to any diplomatic overtures from Washington given that it now relies on food, fuel, security guarantees and other forms of support from Moscow.

Optimists for the Seoul-Washington alliance pin hope on their time-honored partnership that has stood the test of time with North Korea's saber-rattling and other regional and global challenges having brought the allies closer and reinforced a shared purpose of unity.

Yonhap