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Yoon’s impeachment trial deepens Korea’s leadership uncertainty as economic struggles continue

Published: 26 Dec. 2024, 10:23

President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a public address at his official residence in Seoul after the National Assembly votes to impeach him on Dec. 14. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

President Yoon Suk Yeol's political future hangs in the balance as the Constitutional Court deliberates on his impeachment trial over his short-lived martial law declaration, raising concerns over a leadership vacuum amid economic and security challenges.

Yoon faces an uphill legal battle next year after being impeached and subjected to widening probes into his failed attempt to impose military rule on the nation's democracy on Dec. 3. The impeached president has defended his imposition of martial law as an act of governance and denied insurrection charges.

The allegations include insurrection and abuse of power for deploying military forces to the National Assembly to block lawmakers from repealing the decree.

Six judges attend a hearing at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Dec. 10. [YONHAP]

The final decision on his impeachment rests with the Constitutional Court, where at least six of nine justices must uphold the motion to remove him. The process could take up to 180 days.

If Yoon, who was elected in May 2022 to a single, five-year term, is removed from office, a snap election would be held within 60 days.

Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), is currently seen as a top contender, though he faces his own legal risks, including several trials on corruption and other allegations.

Since Yoon's suspension from office on Dec. 14, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed interim leadership.

A seasoned technocrat versed in diplomacy and trade, Han has pledged to stabilize state affairs and uphold the country's security and economic resilience during the transitional period.

The political turmoil comes at a challenging time for South Korea, as it works to strengthen alliances with the United States and other partners to counter growing threats from North Korea amid its deepening military ties with Russia.

Acting President Han Duck-soo presides over an extraordinary Cabinet meeting at the government complex in Seoul on Dec. 19. [POOL/YONHAP]

The instability also raises concerns about South Korea's ability to effectively address economic and security uncertainties, especially with the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House next month.

While Yoon had sought to meet Trump as early as his inauguration in late January, it remains unclear whether there will be top-level diplomacy in the early days of the second Trump administration under Seoul's interim leadership.

The leadership vacuum is also likely to affect South Korea's relations with Japan, as the two nations are set to celebrate the 60th anniversary of their diplomatic relationship next year, as well as with China.

As part of diplomatic efforts, Han held phone talks with U.S. President Joe Biden to ensure the robust bilateral alliance and talked with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over the phone to reaffirm the commitment to trilateral cooperation among the United States, South Korea and Japan.

Domestically, Han has to perform a careful balancing act between the ruling People Power Party and the DP, which holds a majority in parliament, to make decisions about contentious bills and implement next year's budget to boost the sluggish economy.

The DP has urged Han to promptly promulgate the bills mandating special probes into Yoon's martial law decree and allegations against first lady Kim Keon Hee, vowing to hold him responsible if he fails to do so.

The special counsel bill targeting the first lady marks the fourth such bill, as similar were vetoed by Yoon and scrapped in revotes.

Han has until Jan. 1 to decide whether to promulgate the bills or demand parliamentary reconsideration of them.

Yonhap