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Seoul 'better off' under U.S. nuclear umbrella, says former senior Pentagon official

Published: 08 Jan. 2025, 14:06

Vipin Narang, then acting U.S. assistant secretary of defense for space policy, speaks during a forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 1, 2024. [YONHAP]

Incoming President Donald Trump may not support South Korea's independent nuclearization, a former senior Pentagon official anticipated Tuesday, stressing Seoul is "better off" under America's nuclear umbrella.

Vipin Narang, former acting assistant secretary of defense for space policy, made the remarks, voicing optimism that the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), the allies' nuclear deterrence body launched during the Biden administration, will continue at least "for the foreseeable future" under Trump.

"I personally don't think President Trump would support South Korean independent nuclearization," he said during a virtual forum hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a nonprofit research organization.

"I think President Biden and President Trump may not agree on many things, but I think they agree on one thing, which is they both view nuclear weapons as an existential threat, and neither wants nuclear weapons to spread to other countries," he added.

Though he described the North's nuclear program as advancing at "one of the highest rates in the world, matched only by China," Narang said it is better for South Korea to rely on America's "extended deterrence" pledge to use the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.

"I still believe that it's in South Korea's interest to ensconce itself in the extended deterrence umbrella because it's not as if South Korea can get nuclear weapons overnight. There will be a window of vulnerability against a nuclear North Korea that will have an incentive to try and stop South Korea potentially through the use of force," he said.

"In a world in which South Korea is pursuing its own nuclear weapons, then the U.S. probably doesn't have an obligation to defend it … South Korea may be very vulnerable in that period."

Narang, currently the Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, expected that the NCG would remain under Trump, highlighting it is "in America's interest."

"The work streams that we've established mean that the NCG will at least persist, in my view, for the foreseeable future. I do think that the Trump administration will see that this is in America's interest," he said.

"It's a way to allow South Korea to contribute to the extended deterrence relationship in ways that I think the president will appreciate in the sense that it is a good 'bargain' for the U.S., and so I am hopeful that at least on the U.S. side, there will be some continuity," he added.

Under the NCG mechanism, the two allies are pursuing a model of "conventional and nuclear integration" in which the Asian ally uses its high-tech conventional military assets to support America's nuclear operations in an integrated way — a shift that requires South Korea to take greater responsibilities in the alliance.

Rather, Narang raised concerns over whether South Korea's efforts for the NCG would continue in the midst of political uncertainties caused by President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched martial law bid and his subsequent impeachment last month.

"My bigger question is actually on the South Korea side … what happens with the domestic political changes that are imminent and forthcoming in South Korea and the commitment to the NCG, given that President Yoon himself was so intimately … and personally involved with the NCG," he said.

Apparently mindful of growing concerns over Trump's foreign policy approach, Narang underscored the importance of alliances.

"This notion that allies are liabilities or free riders is simply not true," he said, calling the allies "force multipliers." "When we provide a united front to our adversaries, we are stronger, and the allies provide capability and geography, and we share values."

The professor voiced worries over North Korea's fast-advancing nuclear capabilities as well as its deepening military alignment with Russia.

"I think on a percentage basis, North Korea's strategic programs are advancing at one of the highest rates in the world, matched perhaps only by China … and it continues to expand and diversify its capabilities," he said without elaborating further.

Asked to describe Pyongyang's nuclear doctrine, Narang said Pyongyang has an "asymmetric escalation" posture under which a state deploys a nuclear arsenal to present a credible threat of a first nuclear strike or pre-emptive nuclear strike.

"No question. Asymmetric escalation, 100 percent," he said.

Commenting on the potential for South Korea's nuclear latency, Narang said the Asian country has the scientific and technical capability if it needed to pursue nuclear weapons, but the question is "how far could they go without getting detected?"

"I do think that if there is an effort to produce … enough quantities of fissile materials to have … an arsenal that is credible of independently deterring and defeating North Korea … I think South Korea probably gets detected," he said.

Yonhap