Polarized polls: Yoon, party support ratings throw credibility into question
Published: 12 Jan. 2025, 17:22
Updated: 12 Jan. 2025, 17:40
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- LEE SOO-JUNG
- [email protected]
![President Yoon Suk Yeol gives a public address at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul on Dec. 12. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/12/33d59cf7-23ea-4210-9ab4-55f09e653156.jpg)
President Yoon Suk Yeol gives a public address at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul on Dec. 12. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]
The Korean political sphere is disputing the credibility of opinion polls after the approval rating for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s handling of state affairs came in at 40 percent.
Experts said that “small, inexperienced polling agencies are overly populated" in the industry, undermining the accuracy and neutrality of surveys.
A total of 57 pollsters are registered with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission, according to the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily. The figure is relatively higher than that of Japan and France at 20 and 13, respectively, as of 2021. In Korea, 35 public survey companies also went out of business last year.
The commission’s review found that some currently registered pollsters did not conduct business after 2021.
Excessive pollster activities can negatively affect voters' behaviors toward political surveys. Korean polling companies call voters through random dialing or with temporary numbers purchased from telecommunication service providers.
Three telecommunication providers, SK Telecom, KT and LG U+, traded approximately 100 million temporary phone numbers — more than double the Korean population — to pollsters between September 2023 and August last year.
Voter fatigue with political polls can undermine accuracy. People who are fed up with incoming calls from pollsters will likely decline them.
According to the Statistics Training Institute run by the state-run Korea Statistics, the average response rate to automated response surveys ranges between two to four percent, meaning that over 90 percent are not answering inquiries from pollsters.
Lee Jae-mook, a political science professor from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said a low entry barrier for business registration with the commission hinders enhancing professionalism among small polling firms.
![Left-leaning YouTuber Kim Ou-joon testifies at the National Assembly complex in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Dec. 13. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/12/e0076b34-69ec-4efc-b2ed-9b360e841d44.jpg)
Left-leaning YouTuber Kim Ou-joon testifies at the National Assembly complex in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Dec. 13. [NEWS1]
Controversy erupted over the possibility of manipulated surveys after two agencies announced contrastingly different results of surveys that were conducted over the same period, on Jan. 3 and 4.
Flower Research, established by left-leaning YouTuber Kim Ou-joon, said 47.1 percent of its respondents supported the liberal Democratic Party (DP). In his poll, 26.8 percent of respondents supported the conservative People Power Party (PPP).
KopraLab, founded by Hyun Kyung-bo — a former parliamentary candidate from the conservative party — said 36 percent of those surveyed supported the PPP and 39 percent backed the DP. The company also announced that 40 percent of respondents approved of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is facing impeachment over his declaration of martial law on Dec. 3.
Neither pollster is registered with the Korea Research Association, where 35 major polling companies are enrolled.
![Demonstrators rally in front of President Yoon Suk Yeol's residence in central Seoul on Jan. 12. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/12/d0640142-5c50-4f44-920b-6d86bdef42e0.jpg)
Demonstrators rally in front of President Yoon Suk Yeol's residence in central Seoul on Jan. 12. [NEWS1]
Both rival parties appeared to spin the survey results in their narratives to their own advantage.
On Jan. 6, DP chief spokesperson Cho Seung-rae said there are several attempts to shape public opinion through public polls, noting a possibility of deliberately designing questionnaires in order to guide answers in certain ways. The DP said it will review filing a formal complaint against KopraLab.
On Jan. 8, Rep. Kweon Seong-dong, floor leader of the PPP, refuted the claim that Kim’s agency has been manipulating and distorting public opinion multiple times, saying that the DP is relying on filing legal complaints when poll results are not in its favor.
Another PPP official said the results from KopraLab showed that “conservative people are united in response to the DP’s drive to destroy conservatives through extensive special counsel probe bill against Yoon.”
On an online platform, users also commented, “How can Yoon’s current approval rating exceed the one before his impeachment?” Another wrote that it is “unfair” to scrutinize KorpaLab’s survey while the DP is “keeping mum on Flower Research’s poll results.”
As the political spat surrounding polls intensifies, DP Rep. Kim Young-jin said now is the time to comprehend and listen to the public through strategic patience and to restrain from excessively pushing for the impeachment of the acting president.
Prof. Lee suggested that screening and rating the quality of the polls can help improve the reliability of the surveys, pointing to the example of the four-tier system in the United States that evaluates pollsters based on their pre-election predictions and the actual results.
BY KIM MIN-WOOK, LEE SOO-JUNG [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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