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The confidence of novices and the humility of experts

Published: 22 Jan. 2025, 00:02

Choi Hoon

The author is a professor at Hallym University.

“How was your test today?”
“Great, I think I did really well!”

Though I refrained from saying it out loud, I could tell what that response from my son meant: The test didn’t go well. And, as it turns out, my gut feeling was spot-on.

In a psychological study, researchers compared participants’ predicted test scores with their actual results. Interestingly, participants who scored poorly tended to overestimate their performance. For instance, individuals who scored 50 points would confidently predict they had scored around 70.

Novices in a particular field often lack the metacognitive ability to accurately assess their own skills. This inability to recognize one’s own incompetence leads to an overestimation of abilities, which is also known as what psychologists call the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The solution? Gaining expertise. With training and learning, participants’ metacognitive abilities improved, narrowing the gap between their predicted and actual scores.

Conversely, high-performing individuals tended to underestimate their rankings. Experts generally have well-developed metacognitive skills but often overestimate others’ abilities. Influenced by the false consensus effect — the cognitive bias where people assume their beliefs are more widespread than they are — experts often think, “If I know this, surely everyone else does too.” This leads them to undervalue their own expertise.

There’s a saying: “Beware of someone who has read only one book.” Novices, believing what they know is the sole truth, assert their views with unwarranted confidence. Experts, however, recognize that their perspectives are merely one of many possible solutions, making them less likely to argue their points forcefully.

In 2025, the Korean Social and Personality Psychological Association (KSPPA) identified the Dunning-Kruger Effect as a social-psychological phenomenon deserving special attention. In today’s information-rich world, where diverse knowledge flows from countless sources, we must ask ourselves: Are we listening to the confident claims of novices masquerading as experts, or are we heeding the nuanced and humble insights of true professionals?

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.