Trump's inaugural signals South Korea not a priority in U.S. foreign policy shift

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Trump's inaugural signals South Korea not a priority in U.S. foreign policy shift

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U.S. President Donald Trump signs documents as he issues executive orders and pardons for Jan. 6 defendants in the Oval Office at the White House on Inauguration Day in Washington ON Jan. 20. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

U.S. President Donald Trump signs documents as he issues executive orders and pardons for Jan. 6 defendants in the Oval Office at the White House on Inauguration Day in Washington ON Jan. 20. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

 
President Donald Trump's inauguration speech signaled a bold and unilateral shift in U.S. foreign policy, with promises to swiftly end the Ukraine war and refocus American strategy on countering China, while the lack of mention of the South Korea-U.S alliance signals a potential sidelining of Seoul on critical issues.
 
Trump declared that he would bring about an early end to the Ukraine war and floated the Quad — a security consultative body among the United States, Japan, Australia, and India — as a focal point for containing China in his inauguration speech. While he showed interest in North Korean issues, saying, "North Korea is a nuclear power," there are concerns that South Korea and the South Korea-U.S. alliance were not mentioned.
 
The foreign policy focus of Trump, who is trying to achieve diplomatic results quickly in the early days of his term, is currently on Russia and China. In particular, Trump plans to end the war in Ukraine and create conditions to focus on pressuring China.
 
Many initially predicted that Trump's early end-of-war roadmap would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, but other trends have also been observed.
 

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At a White House press conference on Tuesday, Trump said he could impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin did not come to the negotiating table. He also said he might provide more weapons to Ukraine.
 
At the same time, he also began contacting Russia's supporters. Reuters reported on Jan. 17 that Trump pressured Chinese President Xi Jinping to intervene to end the war in Ukraine during a phone call.
 
China is effectively helping Russia wage war behind the scenes by exporting dual-use items. This means that North Korea, which has sent troops to support Russia, could become Trump’s next target. If this serves as an opportunity for North Korea-U.S. dialogue to restart, North Korea could use it as an opportunity to receive compensation not only from Russia but also from the United States.
 
While this outcome would directly impact the security of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea could be excluded from the discussions.
 
The U.S. State Department announced that new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio "discussed concerns about North Korea's political and security ties to Russia" at a U.S.-Japan foreign ministers' meeting on Thursday.
 
The State Department press release made no mention of "South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation," which was present at the U.S.-Japan foreign ministers' meeting just two weeks ago. It seems that discussions are accelerating without South Korea.
 
In the two days since his inauguration, Trump’s only actions related to South Korea were a surprise video call with U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) at their base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi.
 
This is similar to the tone of Secretary Rubio’s confirmation hearing on Jan. 15, where China was mentioned 206 times and Russia 107 times, while North Korea was mentioned 13 times and South Korea only 5 times.
 
Elise Stefanik, the nominee for U.S. ambassador to the UN, named Britain, Israel, Japan and Australia as major allies during her confirmation hearing on Thursday but did not mention South Korea.
 
The possibility of Trump visiting China within the year seems high, with Trump himself saying that he was invited for a summit with Xi. The Wall Street Journal also reported on Saturday that Trump told his aides that he wants to visit China within the first 100 days of his term.
 
There are also concerns that if Trump’s first Northeast Asia tour takes place within the next three months, South Korea could be left out.
 
Even if the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and an early presidential election is held, launching a new government within three months will prove logistically challenging. Meanwhile, a proper summit is virtually impossible under the acting president system.
 
With Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expected to visit the United States next month to hold a U.S.-Japan summit with Trump, Trump would likely pay a return visit to Japan if he goes to China.
 
“It would be better if Trump visited China alone, but if he visits Japan and leaves out South Korea, it would look like we are the only ones being left out,” said Lee Byung-chul, professor at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University.  
 
With the launch of Trump's second term, the profile of the Quad, which South Korea is not a part of, has also strengthened.
 
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the State Department in Washington on Jan. 21. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the State Department in Washington on Jan. 21. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

 
At the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting on Tuesday in Washington, a joint statement was produced with the main points being "strengthening a free and open Indo-Pacific" and "strongly opposing unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo through force or coercion."
 
This clearly indicates Trump's second-term priority is to contain China and actively utilize Quad cooperation for this purpose.
 
On the positive side, Trump's administration has shown no sign of pressuring Seoul over tariffs and other issues.
 
Trump has deferred the universal tariff he had previously pledged to implement on his first day in office. Instead, he has ordered a review of unfair trade practices by U.S. trading partners. The main targets are China, Canada, and Mexico, with South Korea being given a pass for now.
 
Some suggest Korea's post-impeachment leadership vacuum, with the finance minister now acting as acting president, could be a temporary opportunity for Korea to fly under Trump's radar.
 
A diplomatic source said Washington knows it "can't pressure South Korea, which has suspended its summit diplomacy, to make important decisions."
 
However, Seoul will likely face demands such as shouldering a heavier share of the financial burden to station U.S. troops in South Korea. At a press conference on Wednesday, Trump urged North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP.
 
As of 2022, South Korea's defense spending was 2.7 percent of GDP, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
 
South Korea and the United States agreed to the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing in October of last year. Under the deal, Seoul will pay 1.52 trillion won ($1.04 billion) in 2026, up from 1.4 trillion won in 2025.
 
While the agreement is supposed to last until 2030, Trump could simply overturn it.

BY PARK HYUN-JU, LIM JEONG-WON [[email protected]]
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