Dramatic reversal in poll results sparks debate on 'conservative oversampling'
![Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung watches news of President Yoon Suk Yeol's arrest by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials while attending an emergency general meeting of lawmakers held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul on Jan. 15. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/23/d9b9e98c-f483-42c9-9155-7e0abb3bae51.jpg)
Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung watches news of President Yoon Suk Yeol's arrest by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials while attending an emergency general meeting of lawmakers held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul on Jan. 15. [NEWS1]
Recent polls have shown a reversal in support rates between the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and the liberal Democratic Party (DP), sparking debate in political circles over alleged "conservative oversampling" in surveys.
The issue of conservative oversampling arose from the sharp changes in polling results over just a month, following the declaration of martial law and the impeachment vote.
After President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment motion passed on Dec. 14 last year, pollster Gallup Korea's survey conducted from Dec. 17 to Dec. 19 showed DP support at 48 percent, double the PPP's 24 percent.
However, in a survey conducted from Jan. 14 to Jan. 16 during Yoon's arrest warrant controversy, DP support dropped to 36 percent, while the PPP climbed to 39 percent.
A survey by pollster Realmeter, conducted from Jan. 16 to Jan. 17, found support for "extending the current administration" at 48.6 percent, up from 32.3 percent, while support for "replacing the administration" fell to 46.2 percent from 60.4 percent — a dramatic reversal in just four weeks.
"This is a special phenomenon during a special time," DP Rep. Wi Seong-gon, who heads the party committee for poll verification, said Wednesday.
DP Rep. Han Min-soo went further by proposing a bill to increase parliamentary oversight of polling firms.
"We will look into whether institutional reforms are needed to prevent public sentiment from being misled by inaccurate polling," said DP spokesperson Hwang Jung-a.
![President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, greets Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung at the presidential office in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on April 29, 2024. [YONHAP]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/23/91948273-cd6b-4253-808b-a9f45ae00f40.jpg)
President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, greets Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung at the presidential office in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on April 29, 2024. [YONHAP]
In a recent closed-door party leadership meeting led by DP chief Lee Jae-myung, discussions reportedly focused on understanding the exact reasons behind the drop in support since the impeachment.
Some in the DP are downplaying the recent polls as a product of conservative oversampling.
"We won’t disregard public opinion, but we believe conservative oversampling is a factor,” said DP floor leader Park Chan-dae.
"The oversampling of conservative supporters doesn’t reflect any substantive shift in public sentiment,” said DP deputy floor leader Park Sung-joon.
Conservative oversampling refers to a situation where the proportion of respondents identifying as conservative is disproportionately higher than their actual population share, resulting in poll outcomes favoring the ruling party.
In Gallup Korea's third-week January poll, where the PPP overtook the DP, 338 of the 1,001 respondents, or 33.8 percent, identified as conservative, compared to 26.2 percent identifying as progressive — a 7.6 percentage point gap.
Conversely, in the third-week December poll, where the DP led by a double margin, 35.7 percent of respondents identified as progressive, compared to the 26.7 percent identifying as conservatives — a 9 percentage point gap favoring progressives.
![President Yoon Suk Yeol sits in the main chamber of the Constitutional Court in Jongno District, central Seoul, during his impeachment trial hearing on Jan. 21. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/23/270be2cb-5873-4808-8569-f3db3cb16227.jpg)
President Yoon Suk Yeol sits in the main chamber of the Constitutional Court in Jongno District, central Seoul, during his impeachment trial hearing on Jan. 21. [NEWS1]
Experts, however, caution against drawing conclusions based solely on changes in political affiliation among respondents.
"While demographic factors like gender, age and region must align with census data under election law, there is no such fixed standard for ideology," said Realmeter CEO Lee Taek-soo. He likened the fluidity of ideological identification to MBTI test results, which can vary over time.
![[GALLUP KOREA]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/23/a2b1d8ab-68e3-4469-9c37-4dd349354f73.jpg)
[GALLUP KOREA]
Following the declaration of martial law, results from Jan. 5 to Jan. 6 showed a "conservative, centrist, progressive" split of 239, 412, 249 while results after the impeachment vote, from Jan. 19 to Jan. 20, shifted to 292, 342, 289, and results post-Yoon's arrest from Jan. 16 to Jan. 17 showed 376, 344, 224.
"When the DP led the PPP by a twofold margin after the impeachment, progressives were oversampled, yet no one mentioned progressive oversampling,” said Hong Hyung-sik, director of pollster Hangil Research.
“Why then is conservative oversampling only discussed when conservatives respond in higher numbers?"
DP chief Lee said his party “humbly accepts” the results of the polls in a press conference on Thursday.
“Our party believes that the public has high expectations for the DP’s role in Yoon’s arrest and impeachment trial,” said Lee.
BY KIM MIN-YOUNG [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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