We must seek stronger ties with Japan during Trump 2.0

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We must seek stronger ties with Japan during Trump 2.0

Shin Kak-soo
 
The author is the vice chairman of the Near Foundation and a former ambassador to Japan. 
 
The Trump 2.0 era has officially begun. The post-Cold War period, during which the United States led the global order as the sole superpower, is now over. A second Trump administration is expected to focus on rebuilding America while minimizing global engagement. Prioritizing U.S. interests over alliances, bilateralism over multilateralism, transactional policies over shared values and "America First" over maintaining the global order, Trump will likely pursue an even more robust version of "Trumpism." Backed by a loyal cadre, a strong agenda and control over Congress and the judiciary, Trump 2.0 promises to be more assertive than ever before.
 
U.S. isolationism and potential weakening of Western unity
President Trump has openly endorsed an isolationist foreign policy, which could weaken the cohesion of the West in maintaining a liberal international order in the face of adversarial powers such as China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. For South Korea to navigate the multifaceted waves emanating from these shifts, it must solidify the uncertain U.S.-South Korea alliance and defend the liberal international order. Strengthening cooperation with countries that share strategic interests with South Korea will be critical, with Japan emerging as a key partner.
 
The South Korea-Japan relationship, as exemplified by last year’s controversy over the Sado Mine issue, remains fraught with historical and emotional tensions. Nonetheless, a healthy and stable bilateral relationship is vital to South Korea’s diplomacy and security for four key reasons.
 
First, Northeast Asia is rife with instability. North Korea, now in the final stages of nuclear armament, has grown more aggressive and opportunistic, buoyed by Russia’s strategic support in exchange for military aid to the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, China’s assertive diplomacy and security policies threaten to disrupt the existing regional order. Hot spots such as Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea are becoming increasingly volatile. Compounding these challenges, U.S. alliances in the region have been unsettled by Trump’s America-centric policies.
 
Recent diplomatic meetings, such as the U.S.-Japan foreign ministers' meeting on Jan. 22, and the Quad foreign ministers' summit, have notably excluded discussions on South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation and North Korea's denuclearization, underscoring this uncertainty. In such times, the collaboration between South Korea and Japan — two of Asia’s only OECD members and key hosts of U.S. forces — becomes even more essential. The peace and prosperity enjoyed by both countries over the past 80 years have been underpinned by the liberal international order. As major trading nations, South Korea and Japan must work together to safeguard free trade and weather economic challenges, creating synergistic benefits in the process.
 
Second, maximizing mutual benefits in economic and security cooperation is crucial. From an economic and security perspective, the potential for collaboration between South Korea and Japan is immense. Unfortunately, both countries often fail to fully appreciate the costs and missed opportunities of deteriorating bilateral relations. Yet, the growing complementarities of their economies — combined with their shared commitment to liberal democracy and market principles — create substantial room for win-win cooperation across various domains, including economic, diplomatic, security and regional/global issues.
 
A recent example is the decision by South Korean and Japanese firms to build a comprehensive partnership for hydrogen energy production, transport, distribution and utilization. By combining South Korea’s manufacturing and marketing capabilities with Japan’s financial strength and technological expertise, the two nations can expand into third-country markets in areas such as infrastructure, resource development and plant construction.
 
Natural strategic partners in a geopolitical context
Third, from a geopolitical perspective, South Korea and Japan are natural regional strategic partners. Unlike Europe, where NATO and a balance of power among major states ensure regional stability, East Asia lacks a cohesive security architecture or balancing forces due to China’s overwhelming regional presence. For both nations, establishing a rule-based regional order through sustained cooperation with the United States and multilayered regional frameworks is essential.
 
Given their shared values and commitment to maintaining a liberal regional order, Korea and Japan’s collaboration is not merely an option but a necessity. Their strategic alignment is further emphasized by the role of U.S. forces stationed in both countries — interconnected through the seven United Nations Command rear bases in Japan and the integrated security operations involving U.S. Forces Korea and U.S. Forces Japan. In the wake of the Camp David Agreement, which significantly strengthened the trilateral South Korea-U.S-Japan alliance, both nations must share responsibilities for security in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula.
 
Lastly, Korea-Japan cooperation is critical in addressing North Korea’s denuclearization and securing peace and unification on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea, now on the brink of becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, is leveraging its military partnership with Russia and support from China to normalize its nuclear status. This poses a grave threat to both South Korea and Japan.
 
In this context, it is vital to prevent the second Trump administration from pursuing "small deals" with North Korea, such as lifting sanctions in exchange for partial denuclearization. South Korea and Japan must restore a cohesive international front for complete denuclearization. Moreover, their cooperation is essential in strengthening U.S. extended deterrence against North Korea’s threats.
 
Japan’s role is equally crucial in any economic support measures that may arise during the denuclearization process, as seen during the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework, where Japan contributed to light-water reactor construction costs. Additionally, Japan, as the world’s largest net creditor and a leading member of the Asian Development Bank, could play a pivotal role in financing North Korea’s post-unification economic reconstruction and fostering transformation within the regime.
 
A shared vision amid global challenges
The global economy is mired in stagnation, while conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, alongside escalating geopolitical confrontations between major powers, threaten global peace. South Korea, with its high external vulnerabilities, must leverage its significant overlap in values and strategic interests with Japan to build a robust partnership capable of navigating these turbulent times.
 
As South Korea grapples with diplomatic constraints due to domestic political turmoil and Japan prepares for a potential February summit with President Trump, close cooperation between the two countries could provide a solid foundation for addressing uncertainties in the Trump 2.0 era. This year, marking the 60th anniversary of Korea-Japan diplomatic relations, offers an opportunity for a fresh start toward a forward-looking partnership.
 
Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
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