Who are the top PPP presidential contenders trailing DP chief?
![Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, left, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, center, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/906c6840-cd99-4f4b-b985-ca8a42f48f2d.jpg)
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, left, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, center, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo [NEWS1]
The results of a recent survey indicated that a potential early presidential election would be a tight contest depending on which conservative candidate runs against the liberal Democratic Party (DP) pick in the aftermath of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, seen to represent centrists, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, representing the hardliners of the conservative People Power Party (PPP), were pitted against DP leader Lee Jae-myung in a survey by Gallup Korea released on Monday on behalf of the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of Korea JoongAng Daily.
![[JOONANG ILBO/GALLUP KOREA]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/7966afb9-0eea-43d7-8a9e-6afc64481d02.jpg)
[JOONANG ILBO/GALLUP KOREA]
In hypothetical one-on-one races between Lee and seven potential conservative candidates, Lee was found to be leading against all polled contenders. When matched against Oh, Lee led 46 percent to 43 percent. Against Hong, Lee was ahead by 45 percent to 42 percent.
Kim lagged behind other potential conservative contenders in a hypothetical presidential election. In a Lee-Kim matchup, the DP chief led 47 percent to 38 percent.
The survey was conducted over two days from Jan. 23 to 24, targeting 1,031 adults aged 18 and older nationwide via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a confidence rate of 95 percent.
Despite the head-to-head result, however, Kim outperformed both Oh and Hong when respondents were asked to choose from all potential presidential candidates.
Lee topped the list with 36 percent, followed by Kim with 16 percent, Hong with 10 percent, former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon with 8 percent, Oh with 7 percent, Gyeonggi Gov. Kim Dong-yeon with 4 percent, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik with 2 percent and Rep. Lee Jun-seok with 1 percent.
If the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon's impeachment, an early presidential election will take place later this year.
![Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon speaks during a press conference at City Hall in central Seoul on Jan. 22. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/b19d5cf4-1b4a-48d2-9eb4-b4d270750628.jpg)
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon speaks during a press conference at City Hall in central Seoul on Jan. 22. [NEWS1]
Finally president? Oh Se-hoon
Oh, who entered politics in 2000, has publicly hinted at his intention to run for president, marking his first such move. After serving his first term as Seoul mayor from 2006 to 2011, Oh was re-elected as the city's mayor in the 2021 by-election and re-elected in the 2022 local elections.
Oh was the first among conservative presidential hopefuls to bring up constitutional reform, writing on social media on Dec. 23, "Let’s turn this crisis into an opportunity and begin discussions on constitutional amendments."
During a press conference at Seoul City Hall on Jan. 22, Oh raised the issue of constitutional reform, saying, "The government should have the power to dissolve the legislature, and the legislature should have the power to impeach the Cabinet, ensuring a healthy system of checks and balances."
The biggest hurdle to Oh’s candidacy is winning the PPP primary. The party determines its final presidential nominee by combining 50 percent of votes from registered party members and 50 percent from public polling. However, about 40 percent of the conservative party's members are concentrated in the Gyeongsang region.
Oh’s critics question whether a Seoul mayor who supported Yoon’s impeachment can win over the party’s hardliner base, where opposition to the impeachment remains strong. A PPP lawmaker from Daegu and North Gyeonsang — often referred to as “the heart of conservatism” — told the JoongAng Ilbo, "Oh’s advantage lies in his lower unfavorability ratings in the presidential election, but many hardline party members still see him as a ‘traitor’ for supporting impeachment."
![Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo speaks during a new year's event at Exco in Buk District on Jan. 10. [DAEGU METROPOLITAN CITY]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/ca0acfab-da5e-474b-88e3-f628bda34f43.jpg)
Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo speaks during a new year's event at Exco in Buk District on Jan. 10. [DAEGU METROPOLITAN CITY]
Comeback kickoff: Hong Joon-pyo
Outspoken politician Hong has a stronger standing than Oh when it comes to appealing to voters and party members in the Gyeongsang region.
In the 2021 presidential primary, Hong led then-PPP candidate Yoon by a significant margin in public opinion polls. However, he lost the nomination due to a weak performance in the party membership vote, where Yoon dominated. This was largely because Yoon’s loyalists had taken control of key regional party organizations.
If Hong’s defeat in the 2017 presidential election was due to broader political circumstances, most notably the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, his loss in the 2021 primary was the result of a lack of support within his party.
Following the presidential race, Hong resigned from his parliamentary seat and returned to Daegu, where he was elected mayor in the local elections in 2022.
His stint as a mayor was still plagued with challenges, most notably when the PPP suspended his party membership when he came under fire for playing golf in 2023 as the nation struggled with torrential rains, flooding and landslides that left dozens dead or missing.
Hong still maintained frequent communication with Yoon and politically aligned himself with the pro-Yoon faction, the largest bloc within the PPP. He openly criticized former party leader Han Dong-hoon, who often clashed with the president, calling him a "hired mercenary," a "disgraced crown prince defying his sovereign" and a "selfie-taking political idol."
Last month, ahead of the passage of Yoon’s impeachment bill, Hong opposed the motion. Unlike Oh, former PPP Rep. Yoo Seong-min and Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, who supported impeachment, Hong sided with some 90 PPP lawmakers with the stance that Yoon’s removal would lead to the collapse of the conservative party.
![Kim Moon-soo, the new labor minister, speaks during a confirmation hearing held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Aug. 29, 2024. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/fd117385-5fc3-4150-ab45-68f72983ae73.jpg)
Kim Moon-soo, the new labor minister, speaks during a confirmation hearing held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Aug. 29, 2024. [NEWS1]
Evermore to the right: Kim Moon-soo
Labor Minister Kim is a rising dark horse among conservative hardliners, threatening Hong's position within the right-wing political landscape.
During a Dec. 11 parliamentary hearing on the martial law declaration by Yoon, when DP Rep. Seo Young-kyo demanded that ministers bow in apology, Kim remained seated straight while other Cabinet members stood and lowered their heads. He also strongly opposed acting President Choi Sang-mok’s appointment of two Constitutional Court justices.
Kim has also been known for his controversial remarks. While serving as chairman of the Economic, Social and Labor Council in 2022, he referred to former President Moon Jae-in as a "Kim Il Sung-ist" during a parliamentary audit.
The minister was a pro-democracy labor activist from the 1970s to the early 1990s, then well-known in the left-wing political sphere. He was a major figurehead of the Seoul Labor Movement Association, alongside liberal commentator Ryu Si-min and former social democratic Justice Party leader Shim Sang-jung.
However, his career as a lawmaker started in 1996 with the conservative New Korea Party under the leadership of former President Kim Young-sam. Minister Kim has since spent his career as a politician in various conservative political parties.
"Politics is like a tsunami — when the momentum builds, it sweeps everything along,” said a PPP lawmaker. “But whether Kim can appeal to centrist voters remains questionable."
Kim’s seemingly humble lifestyle is also pointed out as a point of charm for his base. The average reported wealth of Yoon’s cabinet ministers in 2024 was nearly 3.74 billion won ($2.59 million), whereas Kim and his wife reported 872 million won — roughly one-fourth the average.
Kim was also previously credited for his administrative skills as Gyeonggi governor in 2006 to 2014, where he introduced the current Great Train eXpress (GTX) plan and implemented an initiative to address welfare blind spots.
![Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, left, presents a gift to former President Moon Jae-in in Moon's residence in South Gyeongsang, on Jan. 30. [DEMOCRATIC PARTY]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/01/30/c10b02ba-2dd1-445a-b6c3-30b6d22b99ca.jpg)
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, left, presents a gift to former President Moon Jae-in in Moon's residence in South Gyeongsang, on Jan. 30. [DEMOCRATIC PARTY]
Who wins?
The primary issues for voters in the next presidential election were tied to finances.
In response to the question on what the next president should prioritize, 48 percent — nearly half of respondents — chose “stabilizing livelihoods and revitalizing the economy.”
Economic recovery was the top concern across all age groups and regions. However, preferences varied by candidate support. While supporters of most candidates prioritized economic issues, those backing Kim ranked “national security” as their top priority by 42 percent.
Respondents favoring Lee, who previously served as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi, cited his “strong administrative ability” as the main reason for their support. Backers of Oh, meanwhile, pointed to his track record as Seoul mayor as their top reason for support.
However, Minister Kim’s support stemmed from different factors. The top reasons for preferring him were his “strong convictions,” “integrity” and “patriotism.”
BY KIM MIN-YOUNG [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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