No allies safe in Trump's global tariff war, including Korea
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- SEO JI-EUN
- [email protected]
![U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters after signing an executive order on tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico in the Oval Office on Jan. 31 in Washington. [AFP/YONHAP]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/02/03/3906f25d-4605-4e9f-b1ea-4f8fd768fb08.jpg)
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters after signing an executive order on tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico in the Oval Office on Jan. 31 in Washington. [AFP/YONHAP]
[NEWS ANALYSIS]
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is expanding, with Trump warning Sunday that he would extend tariffs to the European Union after earlier targeting China, Canada and Mexico — signaling Trump’s broader strategy using tariffs not only as a tool for trade and commerce but also as a ploy to diplomatic and defense negotiations.
More concerning for U.S. allies is that Trump made it clear that no country is safe.
The Korean government convened an emergency response meeting on Monday afternoon, led by the Minister for Trade, Cheong In-kyo, focusing on assessing the potential impact on South Korean businesses operating abroad.
“While the impact may vary depending on industry and company size, Korean businesses [operating in China, Canada and Mexico] are expected to be affected by U.S. tariffs,” a Korean Foreign Ministry official said in a closed-door briefing Monday. “We plan to share information and discuss countermeasures with other major economies, including the EU and Japan, which have a significant presence in Mexico.”
The official also said that while Trump has not yet announced specific tariffs on Korean exports, the ministry is "closely monitoring the situation in anticipation of a broader expansion of U.S. trade restrictions."
![The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada fly in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Feb. 1. [REUTERS/YONHAP]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/02/03/e865bfc4-d238-49b7-a412-b55802bad26c.jpg)
The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada fly in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Feb. 1. [REUTERS/YONHAP]
While Korea has so far avoided direct tariff measures, possibly due to President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment and ongoing legal proceedings, once the Korean political landscape stabilizes in the coming months, Seoul could also become a primary target.
A similar scenario played out during the first Trump administration following the ouster of then-President Park Geun-hye, and trade negotiations gained momentum after President Moon Jae-in assumed office in May 2017 after an early presidential election.
Analysts predict Trump's tariff pressure could serve as bargaining chips to push Korea on three key issues: increasing the defense cost-sharing burden for U.S. troops stationed in Korea, reducing Korea’s trade surplus with the United States and forcing stronger alignment with Washington’s anti-China policies.
Trump has consistently portrayed Korea as a “money machine,” suggesting it should pay much more for U.S. military presence in the country.
In October last year, the Joe Biden administration signed the 12th Special Measures Agreement, setting Korea’s defense cost-sharing contributions through 2030. However, Trump could unilaterally push to renegotiate or even override the deal with an executive order, with him saying last October that Korea "would be paying $10 billion a year" to station U.S. Forces Korea, or USFK, in the country, far exceeding the current agreed-upon contributions.
Some even fear he may use the potential reduction of U.S. troops in Korea as an additional bargaining chip.
![Lee Tae-woo, Korea's chief negotiator for the defense cost-sharing talks, right, signs the preliminary agreement for the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) with Linda Specht, U.S. Senior Advisor in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Seoul on Oct. 4, 2024, agreeing to increase Korea's first-year contribution by 8.3 percent in 2026, with subsequent annual increases linked to inflation rather than defense budget growth. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/02/03/281319fb-8134-485a-ab90-96316e4e502f.jpg)
Lee Tae-woo, Korea's chief negotiator for the defense cost-sharing talks, right, signs the preliminary agreement for the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) with Linda Specht, U.S. Senior Advisor in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Seoul on Oct. 4, 2024, agreeing to increase Korea's first-year contribution by 8.3 percent in 2026, with subsequent annual increases linked to inflation rather than defense budget growth. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]
“Trump's frequent use of tariffs as a scapegoat for the ills in trade negotiations could be used as a weapon in diplomatic and defense talks," said Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Sogang University’s Graduate School of International Studies. "He could threaten tariffs or even U.S. troop reductions if Korea doesn't pay the demanded defense sharing costs.”
Korea’s record-high trade surplus with the United States, reaching $55.7 billion in 2024, is also expected to put it in Trump’s crosshairs.
"When Trump first took office in 2017, Korea’s surplus was significantly smaller, yet he immediately pressured Seoul into renegotiating the Korea-U.S. FTA," remarked a diplomatic source. "It’s almost certain he will push for new trade adjustments now.”
While Trump has expanded his tariff war, experts say his ultimate goal remains to pressure China and demand full cooperation from allies in isolating Beijing. Korea, given its deep trade ties with China, could find itself in a difficult position.
“We should note the imposition of tariffs on the export of Korean products containing China-made components," said Cho Byung-jae, former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. "The [extent of these measures] will likely become clearer after his administration’s ‘America First’ policy review in late April."
Trump has targeted Korea’s ties to China before.
In 2018, his administration imposed a 25-percent tariff on Korean steel under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, citing concerns that Chinese steel was being rerouted through Korea. Although Seoul avoided the full impact by agreeing to a quota system limiting its steel exports to the U.S. to 70 percent of previous levels, experts warn that a second Trump administration could adopt an even harder stance.
Korea’s dependence on Chinese trade could also pose indirect risks.
If Trump tightens U.S. trade barriers, Chinese manufacturers may flood European and global markets, intensifying competition for Korean businesses. Additionally, an oversupply of Chinese goods could drive down prices globally.
The Korean government appears to be delaying an early confrontation with Washington as Trump prioritizes short-term diplomatic gains in the early stages of the new administration.
“If we’re going to be hit, it’s better to delay it as much as possible,” a government source said.
BY PARK HYUN-JU, LEE YOO-JUNG, SEO JI-EUN [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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