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The fundamental flaws with early voting

Published: 07 Feb. 2025, 00:02

Kim Jung-ha

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

A growing number of voices within the conservative bloc are calling for the abolition of early voting, arguing that it has become a breeding ground for electoral fraud. While I personally believe such claims are nothing more than unscientific conspiracy theories, I do see legitimate issues with early voting that are entirely separate from these allegations.

Introduced in 2014 during local elections, early voting was initially hailed as a way to boost voter turnout. And indeed, its impact has been substantial — early voting accounted for 47.9 percent of total ballots cast in the 2022 presidential election and 46.7 percent in the 2024 general election. It may not be long before more than half of all voters cast their ballots before Election Day, effectively turning elections into a two-stage process: a first vote during early voting and a second vote on the official election day.

Pedestrians walk past signs advertising the early voting period for the 2022 presidential election at Cheonggyecheon, a stream in central Seoul, on Feb. 20, 2022. [YONHAP]

But as early voting participation surged, it has also introduced distortions into the electoral system, raising concerns that can no longer be ignored. One of the fundamental principles of democratic elections is equality — every voter should have the same right to cast their ballot under the same conditions. Just as it would be unthinkable to allow voters in Seoul to have a longer campaign period than those in Busan, it is equally problematic when voters do not have equal access to critical election-related information.

Under Korea’s Public Official Election Act, the publication of opinion poll results is prohibited starting six days before the election. However, early voting is held four to five days prior to election day, meaning that early voters cast their ballots with access to the latest poll results, while those voting on election day remain in the dark.

Take the 2022 presidential election as an example. The last legally permitted polls were conducted by Mar. 2, and their results were published in newspapers on the morning of Mar. 4. The 16.32 million voters who participated in early voting on Mar. 4- 5 cast their ballots with the freshest polling data in mind. Meanwhile, the 17.48 million voters who went to the polls on Mar. 9 were left in what is often referred to as the “blind period,” unable to gauge the final shifts in public sentiment.

Voters are lined up at a polling station at a community center in Jamsil in Songpa District, southeastern Seoul, on April 6, 2024. This was the second and final day of the early voting period for 2024 general election held on April 6 of the same year. [NEWS1]

This discrepancy is not trivial. Public opinion polls influence voter behavior — there is a reason why campaign operatives obsess over them and why political strategist Myung Tae-kyun went to great lengths to manipulate them in the last presidential race. When nearly half of the electorate has access to fresh polling data while the other half does not, it creates a serious imbalance.

Consider another key event from the 2022 election: the last-minute merger between Yoon Suk Yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo on Mar. 3, which fell within the legally mandated polling blackout period. This agreement likely caused major shifts in voter sentiment, yet it was only reflected in election day ballots, while early votes had already been cast. Had polling data been continuously available until election day, the final outcome might have been different. The information asymmetry between early voters and election-day voters is not just unfair — it has the potential to alter electoral outcomes.

Another fundamental problem with early voting is that it fails to account for late-breaking political developments. In any election, there is always the possibility that a dramatic event could shift voter sentiment in the final days. However, early votes, once cast, are irreversible, meaning that voters who participate early are essentially locked into their choices regardless of any game-changing events.

For instance, imagine if Ahn Cheol-soo had withdrawn from the 2022 presidential race after early voting had already begun. His early voters would have been left with wasted ballots, unable to shift their support to another candidate. Similarly, the existence of early voting shortens the effective campaign period by four to five days, diminishing the time available for voters to make fully informed decisions.

The only real justification for early voting is its potential to increase voter turnout. But at what cost? In 2024, Korea spent 68.7 billion won ($51 million) on early voting, surpassing the 68.0 billion won budget for election day voting. It is worth asking whether there are more cost-effective ways to boost voter turnout.

A worker blocks a surveillance camera installed near an early voting station at Incheon International Airport on April. 4, 2024. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

One alternative would be a lottery-based incentive system. Suppose the government allocated the 68.7 billion won early voting budget across Korea’s 3,565 polling stations, distributing an average of 19.27 million won per station. If each polling station were to randomly award 192 gift cards worth 100,000 won to voters on election day, it could provide a meaningful incentive to increase turnout — without introducing the democratic distortions caused by early voting.

While early voting may have been introduced with good intentions, its unintended consequences are now impossible to ignore. The information asymmetry between early voters and election-day voters undermines the principle of equal suffrage. The inflexibility of early ballots makes elections less responsive to late-breaking developments. And the fiscal burden of running early voting operations may not be justified when alternative turnout-boosting measures could be more effective.

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.