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Can Korea compete in the age of reusable rockets?

Published: 10 Feb. 2025, 00:02

Kim Seung Jo

The author is a professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

With SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket landings on drone ships becoming routine, the initial excitement seemed to have subsided. However, the recent soft landing of the massive Starship rocket’s first stage onto its launchpad’s “chopstick” support arms has once again reignited admiration for advancements in reusable rocket technology. As a result, newly developed rockets today are mostly designed with reusability as a fundamental feature.

On Jan. 22, the Korea Aerospace Administration (KASA) unveiled its 2025 operational plan, explicitly stating that it will “actively push forward with the development of a reusable launch vehicle” as part of its efforts to transition to a private-led space transportation industry, one of its seven core initiatives. While no final decisions have been made, there are reports that the next-generation launch vehicle, which has already entered development, may be converted into a reusable model. With the successful development of Naro and Nuri rockets fulfilling the public’s longstanding aspirations for a domestically produced rocket, the next logical step is to ensure cost-effective reusability. Of course, this will be no easy feat, which is why the government is investing more than 2 trillion won ($1.37 million) in its development.

Booster rocket engines approach landing pads after a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket, carrying the Arabsat 6A communications satellite, lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral , Florida, April 11, 2019. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

SpaceX: 90 percent of the world’s rocket launches
To formulate a strategic approach to rocket development, we must first examine the current state of the global commercial launch industry. The landscape can be likened to “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs,” with SpaceX standing as the dominant force far ahead of the pack, while seven other national space agencies or private launch vehicle companies trail behind. Let’s take a closer look at these competitors.

SpaceX’s launch performance last year was unparalleled. Excluding its four Starship test flights, the company launched Falcon rockets a staggering 134 times — roughly once every two to three days — accounting for more than half of the world’s total rocket launches. In terms of payload mass, it delivered nearly 2,000 tons to orbit, representing approximately 90 percent of the global total.

Now, let’s examine the status of its competitors. United Launch Alliance (ULA), a longtime industry leader jointly owned by Boeing and Lockheed Martin, conducted a mere five launches: three commercial flights — one Delta IV and two Atlas V missions — and two test flights of its new Vulcan rocket. The Delta IV rocket was retired due to exorbitant engine costs, and the Atlas V, which relies on Russian-made RD-180 engines, will be phased out once its remaining stock of engines is depleted. The Vulcan rocket, its designated successor, encountered issues during its second test flight and remains under evaluation. Even if successful, its lack of reusability raises concerns about its cost competitiveness.

Rocket Lab, a rising star in the new space industry, launched 14 times last year, making it a Cinderella story. However, its Electron rocket, which can carry only about 300 kilograms (661 pounds) to low Earth orbit, remains unprofitable, and the company is struggling financially. Despite its strong presence in the U.S. stock market, largely due to the market’s desire to curb SpaceX’s dominance, its future remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket was test-launched last year after a four-year delay, only to encounter issues that require corrective measures. Satellites that were originally slated for Ariane 6, such as the Galileo navigation satellites, were instead launched by SpaceX at a high cost due to the urgency of their deployment. Even if Ariane 6 achieves operational stability this year, its lack of reusability casts doubt on its competitiveness.

Similarly, Japan has faced setbacks with its new H3 rocket. Over two years, it launched only four times, suffering two failures before achieving three successful launches last year. Unlike Europe, Japan still has its H-2 rocket in operation, adding two more launches for a total of five. However, like Ariane 6, the H3 rocket relies on low-thrust liquid hydrogen engines and must carry multiple solid rocket boosters, making reusability fundamentally unfeasible.

Russia’s storied space industry faces an uphill battle
Russia launched rockets 17 times last year — 15 Soyuz missions and two Angara missions. The Soyuz rocket, which dates back to the modified R-7 that launched Sputnik in 1957, remains structurally similar to its 60-year-old predecessor. While it remains reliable enough to transport astronauts to space stations, it is approaching the end of its operational life span. Even if Russia successfully establishes Angara as its next-generation rocket, its lack of reusability raises concerns about its commercial viability. The country’s once-renowned rocket technology faces a long road to reclaim its former prestige.

India, known for its low-cost launches, still relies on a mix of toxic hypergolic liquid engines and solid propellants, which lack reusability and are prone to frequent failures. Furthermore, Indian launch vehicles struggle to compete with Falcon 9’s cost-effectiveness, limiting their influence in the commercial launch market beyond domestic needs.

China remains the only player making some headway in catching up with SpaceX. However, due to U.S. restrictions, it has little presence in the global commercial launch market, focusing instead on fulfilling domestic demand. The state-run China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) aimed for 100 launches last year but only managed 48. While several private Chinese firms are developing reusable rockets, their success hinges on overcoming the geopolitical constraints posed by U.S. influence.

Blue Origin, led by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, has introduced the reusable New Glenn rocket, but with just one test flight to date, it remains a potential future competitor rather than a serious player at present.

The foundation of the space economy is affordable launch capabilities, but the real profits lie in satellite services. Even SpaceX, now valued at approximately $350 billion, derives 90 percent of its worth from its Starlink satellite business rather than launch operations. Korea has now established KASA with the goal of stimulating the space economy. Therefore, rather than focusing solely on achieving successful launches, the country must prioritize developing cost-competitive launch vehicles, even if it means enduring failures along the way. The competitiveness of Korea’s satellite industry starts with lower launch costs. With the exception of SpaceX, other nations are on equal footing with Korea in terms of reusable rocket technology. It is time for Korea to set bold goals and embark on the development of its next-generation launch vehicle with confidence.

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.