The ‘Trump Factor’ requires vigilance
Published: 17 Feb. 2025, 00:01
The annual Munich Security Conference that took place from Feb. 14 to 16 in Germany facilitated a series of high-level diplomatic meetings, including bilateral talks between South Korea and the United States, a trilateral meeting with Japan and a G7 foreign ministers’ gathering. These engagements successfully reaffirmed the commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea and upheld the principle of CVID: complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement. The agreement among South Korea, the United States and Japan to strengthen security cooperation is a substantial achievement. South Korea, in particular, has momentarily navigated through sensitive diplomatic and security concerns that had been heightened with the start of Donald Trump’s second term. However, it is far too soon to be complacent. Given Trump’s unpredictable nature, vividly demonstrated since his return to office, it remains unclear how and when he may use unexpected diplomatic maneuvers to pressure or unsettle allies.
Coincidentally, both 2017 and 2025 saw the impeachment of a South Korean president by the National Assembly. During Trump’s first term, then-acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn was able to secure a phone call with Trump just 10 days after his inauguration. This time, however, nearly a month has passed without such communication, raising concerns that South Korea has been relegated to a lower priority in Washington’s strategic interests. Against this backdrop, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, emphasizing the resilience of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and fueling expectations for an imminent direct call with acting President Choi Sang-mok.
There is no reason to doubt the verbal assurances, commitments and agreements from the United States, South Korea’s only formal ally. However, given the fluid nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which heavily depends on evolving domestic and international circumstances, South Korea’s diplomatic and security authorities must remain highly vigilant. Notably, recent reports indicate that the United States has proposed securing half of Ukraine’s rare earth resources as part of postwar security guarantees. Prior to this, Trump suggested transforming the Middle East’s Gaza strip into a maritime resort destination, drawing fierce backlash from regional stakeholders. Such strong-armed "America First" policies suggest that alliances are no exception to Trump’s transactional approach.
Should Trump perceive it as serving U.S. national interests, there is always the possibility that his administration might bypass Seoul and engage directly with Pyongyang. The prospect of a "Korea Passing" scenario, where denuclearization talks shift toward nuclear arms reduction negotiations, cannot be dismissed. There is even speculation that Trump might propose developing Wonsan-Kalma into a global tourism and resort hub as an incentive for North Korea’s cooperation in negotiations.
To avoid being caught off guard by the "Trump storm," Korea must mobilize all available political and diplomatic networks in Washington to meticulously track White House developments. It is crucial to break free from the inertia of conventional South Korea-U.S. relations and, at times, employ unconventional and creative strategies to brace for Trump’s unique and often unorthodox diplomatic maneuvers.
Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
Coincidentally, both 2017 and 2025 saw the impeachment of a South Korean president by the National Assembly. During Trump’s first term, then-acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn was able to secure a phone call with Trump just 10 days after his inauguration. This time, however, nearly a month has passed without such communication, raising concerns that South Korea has been relegated to a lower priority in Washington’s strategic interests. Against this backdrop, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, emphasizing the resilience of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and fueling expectations for an imminent direct call with acting President Choi Sang-mok.
There is no reason to doubt the verbal assurances, commitments and agreements from the United States, South Korea’s only formal ally. However, given the fluid nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which heavily depends on evolving domestic and international circumstances, South Korea’s diplomatic and security authorities must remain highly vigilant. Notably, recent reports indicate that the United States has proposed securing half of Ukraine’s rare earth resources as part of postwar security guarantees. Prior to this, Trump suggested transforming the Middle East’s Gaza strip into a maritime resort destination, drawing fierce backlash from regional stakeholders. Such strong-armed "America First" policies suggest that alliances are no exception to Trump’s transactional approach.
Should Trump perceive it as serving U.S. national interests, there is always the possibility that his administration might bypass Seoul and engage directly with Pyongyang. The prospect of a "Korea Passing" scenario, where denuclearization talks shift toward nuclear arms reduction negotiations, cannot be dismissed. There is even speculation that Trump might propose developing Wonsan-Kalma into a global tourism and resort hub as an incentive for North Korea’s cooperation in negotiations.
To avoid being caught off guard by the "Trump storm," Korea must mobilize all available political and diplomatic networks in Washington to meticulously track White House developments. It is crucial to break free from the inertia of conventional South Korea-U.S. relations and, at times, employ unconventional and creative strategies to brace for Trump’s unique and often unorthodox diplomatic maneuvers.
Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
To write comments, please log in to one of the accounts.
Standards Board Policy (0/250자)