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Former U.S. envoy warns Trump could sideline South Korea like Ukraine in potential talks with North

Published: 20 Feb. 2025, 18:47 Updated: 20 Feb. 2025, 19:57

SEO JI-EUN
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U.S. President Donald Trump, right, gestures as he meets with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un at the start of their historic U.S.-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. [AFP/YONHAP]

Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens warned Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy may prioritize the Pacific region over trans-Atlantic relations and that he may potentially sideline Seoul if he attempts direct negotiations with Pyongyang.

Speaking on a podcast, Stephens, who served as the top U.S. envoy to Korea from 2008 to 2011, highlighted growing concerns in South Korea over “Korea passing" — the possibility that the United States could engage North Korea in negotiations without consulting Seoul — similar to Ukraine’s absence from the recent U.S.-Russia cease-fire talks in Riyadh.

"I know there is a stream of thought, both here in the United States and maybe in Asia as well, that Trump may deemphasize the trans-Atlantic link because he’s going to focus on the Pacific,” Stephens said on Washington-based think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) podcast. “I’m sure the anxiety will be quite high about whether or not there’s ‘Seoul passing.’”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has strongly opposed his country’s exclusion from the U.S.-Russia peace negotiations, saying he "won't recognize" any agreement about Ukraine made without itself.

Despite such concerns, Trump escalated his rhetoric against Zelensky, referring to him as a "dictator without elections" on social media.

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, then-Republican presidential nominee former, meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on Sept. 27, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

This "Ukraine passing" scenario may serve as a cautionary example for South Korea, raising fears that the U.S. might engage North Korea directly, bypassing Seoul. Trump continuously indicated a willingness to engage with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, referring to him as a "smart guy" during a Fox News interview on Jan. 23.

During his first term, Trump conducted denuclearization talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, holding three meetings between 2018 and 2019, which fizzled after the Hanoi summit in February 2019. After the first summit in Singapore, Trump announced the suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea, describing them as "very provocative" and "very expensive" — which raised concerns that this time he might pursue a "small deal" with Pyongyang, focusing on a nuclear freeze rather than complete denuclearization.

Stephens emphasized that South Korea’s influence in U.S. diplomatic strategies will depend on two factors: the officials overseeing Asia policy in the administration and the personal relationship Trump develops with South Korea’s yet-to-be-elected president.

She also noted that while Trump’s approach to diplomacy is often unconventional, bipartisan support for strong alliances in Washington remains firm.

“There’s been broad and deepening bipartisan support for the alliance and for the tenets of the alliance that we’ve seen over the past couple of decades,” she said. “And I hope that sort of institutional framework will help us withstand what are sure to be some unconventional stresses and strains that we’re going to see.”

A second Trump administration could pose economic challenges for South Korea, Stephens warned. One of the most immediate concerns is Trump’s trade policies, particularly his stance on tariffs.

"Right now, the steel tariffs — which are supposed to take effect in March — will be 25 percent,” Stephens said. “South Korea is the fourth-largest steel exporter to the United States. There’s so much investment of Korean companies in the United States … [and these tariffs] will impact … the number of exports … and the inputs and the business calculations.”

Beyond tariffs, she pointed to South Korea’s extensive investments in the United States under policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Chips Act, both key initiatives of the Joe Biden administration.

“We are still at the beginning of a push-and-pull between governors and members of Congress who see important Korean investments going into their states," continued Stephens. "Where the Trump administration will go in terms of following through on some of the initiatives in the IRA and the CHIPS Act [remains to be seen].

BY SEO JI-EUN [[email protected]]