2024 was an off year for K-pop. Can BTS, Blackpink and China turn the tide?

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2024 was an off year for K-pop. Can BTS, Blackpink and China turn the tide?

Published: 21 Feb. 2025, 07:00 Updated: 21 Feb. 2025, 13:15

CHO YONG-JUN
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PARK EUN-JEE
[email protected]

KIM JU-YEON
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

BTS performs at a world tour at Seoul Olympic Stadium in Jamsil, southern Seoul in October 2019. [HYBE]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

With BTS on military duty, no Blackpink activity and the never-ending feud between HYBE and NewJeans, major K-pop agencies suffered a rough 2024. Entering 2025, however, the tone has shifted to a positive one thanks to the scheduled return of veteran groups, China's potential lifting of a ban on Korean content and the rise of promising newcomers.

A flurry of announcements has benefited investor sentiment surrounding K-pop's biggest players. Blackpink announced its first world tour since 2022 earlier this month. BTS members including Jin and J-hope showed promise in their solo activities, and parent company HYBE put out a series of well-received debuts, as did SM Entertainment.

The latest boost came from China's possible lift on its de facto ban on Korean content, which the Korea Economic Daily first reported on Wednesday, as well as confirmation that the two governments are soon set to negotiate the restrictions face-to-face.

Against the rosy backdrop, stocks of the country's top entertainment companies have displayed robust two-digit growth since the beginning of this year in contrast to last year's decline.

HYBE, the K-pop agency behind BTS, hit 52-week highs multiple times this month with its stock climbing 28.5 percent to close at 248,500 won Thursday compared to the end of 2024. Investment sentiment for YG Entertainment, the label that manages Blackpink, has been bullish as well: Its stock has gained 34.7 percent since the beginning of this year. SM Entertainment, which represents aespa and Riize and is highly dependent on China, rose 41.8 percent this year to close at 101,400 won on Thursday, hitting a 52-week high during the trading hours.

The conditions are right. All eyes are on the industry now, and whether it can follow through.

The rookie effect on a rough 2024

Girl group NJZ, otherwise known as NewJeans [COMPLEXCON HONG KONG]

Each agency had its own portion of agony last year. The members of BTS, some of whom are still completing military service, gave their parent company some grief: Solo releases trickled out, but group activities didn't materialize. A seemingly endless legal battle between former ADOR CEO Min Hee-jin also dampened investor sentiment.

Blackpink also spent 2024 focused on their solo careers, managed by separate agencies, with no group concerts or album releases to speak of.

Their vacancy weighed on K-pop album sales. Forty million physical K-pop albums were sold in 2020, 74 million in 2022 and an all-time high of 115 million in 2023 — but the number dropped 19.5 percent to 93 million in 2024, according to the Korea Music Content Association’s Circle Chart.

While physical album sales are not a definite indicator of industry health, they speak to both the strength and purchasing power of an artist's fandom and contribute to agency revenue. In this case, the decrease likely reflects scarce performances from big-name boy bands such as Seventeen and Stray Kids, on top of the dearth of BTS and Blackpink albums.

Market analysts, however, expect major agencies to bounce back this year as promising rookies emerge and multiple big-hitters return.

The growth of rookie girl group BabyMonster is likely to fuel YG Entertainment in 2025. Blackpink’s next world tour, kicking off in July 2025 at Goyang Stadium in Gyeonggi, could also attract 2 million attendees, according to Yuanta Securities analyst Lee Hwan-wook.

“The increase in BabyMonster’s global presence is also expected to contribute to [YG Entertainment’s] profit,” said Lee Hwan-wook, who also expects the agency to debut a new boy band “at the end of this year or by early next year.”

JYP Entertainment will also benefit from boy band Stray Kids’ world tour and Twice’s projected world tour in 2025, newer groups such as NMIXX and boy bands NEXZ and KickFlip may contribute further in 2025.

“Jin and J-Hope began their solo activities shortly after completing their mandatory service,” Kiwoom Securities Analyst Lee Nam-su said, adding that other BTS members could continue solo activities soon after. “The solo activities may result in the group comeback being postponed, but that’s hardly a negative factor for the agency.”

HYBE could also benefit from solid concert revenue generated through boy bands Seventeen, Tomorrow X Together and Enhypen. The company’s rookie band BoyNextDoor, with enough songs released over the last couple of years, may also contribute to the plan.

While the ongoing dispute between NewJeans, former ADOR producer Min Hee-jin and HYBE has not been resolved and the girl group's planned world tour remains on ice, Lee Nam-su believes the situation to be little more than noise. Its impact on HYBE's earnings, Lee predicts, will “be resolved through the growth of rookies.”

A long-awaited lift

SM Entertainment's new girl group Hearts2Hearts [SM ENTERTAINMENT]

And then there's SM Entertainment, which will largely benefit from the upcoming lift of the Chinese ban because it generates significant revenue from bulk album sales in China. The agency hopes its newer boy band Riize and girl group Hearts2Hearts carry on their popularity.

“SM Entertainment has a solid artist lineup, and improvement in the company’s profitability can also be seen,” NH Investment & Securities analyst Lee Hwa-jeong said.

“The possibility of aespa growing as the agency’s mega IP is growing, followed by the girl group’s continued musical success globally and its concert outcome in North America.”

The atmosphere between Seoul and Beijing is growing more amicable. China's Minister of Culture and Tourism, during Korean Culture Minister Yu In-chon’s visit to Shanghai in November, hinted at the country’s policy change by saying he wished to “learn the success that Korea had in fields like content.”

K-pop idols began hosting fan meet-and-greet events and pop-up stores in the country in 2024.

Beijing unofficially banned the airing of Korean cultural content and K-pop stars’ performances or media appearances in China in retaliation against Korea’s deployment of a U.S.-led antimissile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in the country in 2017.

But the Korea Economic Daily reported Wednesday that the nation planned to lift its restrictions within the first half of this year ahead of the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in October, citing a high-ranking official on a committee related to Asia-Pacific and Chinese relations. A cultural delegation from China's private sector will serve to “open cultural exchange” between the two nations in the first half of this year, per the report.

A source at Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to the Korea JoongAng Daily that “a Chinese delegation is set to visit Korea soon” and that the trip would create “an opportunity” for discussion on the matter.

China’s official stance is that there is no such ban in place. Korean media content, however, is required to be screened by the state to be exported to the country, and there have been cases in which it was rejected.

Beijing issued a plan to stabilize foreign investment in 2025 that was approved by State Council executive members on Wednesday, which included plans to encourage “opening its education and cultural sectors,” Xinhua, China’s official state news agency, reported the same day.

“More and more small-sized fan meet-and-greet events are being hosted in China and K-pop pop-up stores have been expanding since November,” Eugene Investment & Securities said in January.

“With China’s visa-free policy [for Korean nationals] in mind, the resumption of Chinese album group orders and K-pop concerts in China will noticeably grow the industry.”

BY CHO YONG-JUN, PARK EUN-JEE, KIM JU-YEON [[email protected]]