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Korea's births rise for first time in nine years as post-pandemic marriages surge

Published: 26 Feb. 2025, 12:38 Updated: 26 Feb. 2025, 18:17

SHIN HA-NEE
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Newborn babies at a hospital in Incheon on Feb. 26 [NEWS1]

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Korea’s births saw their first uptick in nearly a decade, partly driven by a continued post-pandemic surge in marriages. But experts warn that it's too early to tell whether the rebound signals a true departure from its rock-bottom fertility rates, as significant challenges, from widening economic and regional disparities to heavy housing costs, persist.

Births rose to 238,343 in 2024, up 3.6 percent from the previous year, marking the first rebound in the number of newborns since 2015, according to data Statistics Korea published Wednesday.

The fertility rate rose to 0.75, compared to the previous year's record low of 0.72. The figure marked its first uptick in nine years, surpassing Statistics Korea's initial projection of 0.68 released early last year, but still remains well below the 2.1 minimum required to maintain a stable population without immigration.

Statistics Korea attributed the increase to three factors: an increase in the number of individuals in their 30s, a continued post-pandemic surge in marriages, and an optimistic shift in perception toward marriage and parenthood.

Korea's births hit a record low of 230,028 in 2023 but gradually recovered throughout last year, mainly driven by the post-pandemic surge of marriages and a base effect from the previous year’s ultralow birthrate.

The number of newborn babies, after plunging by 6 percent on year to a fresh low of 60,568 in the first quarter, began to rebound in the second quarter, rising 1.3 percent from the previous year to 56,892.

The recovery accelerated in the third quarter, as births rose 7.9 percent on year to 61,242, followed by a strong 13.1 percent jump in the fourth quarter to 59,641 babies born.

The quarterly total fertility rate stood at 0.77 in the first quarter, followed by 0.72 in the second, 0.76 in the third and 0.75 in the fourth.

Nevertheless, Korea still remains the only country among OECD member nations with a total fertility rate below one. The OECD average of total fertility rates stood at 1.51 babies per woman as of 2022.

Despite the rebound, Korea saw a natural population decrease of 120,014 last year with the number of deaths rising 1.7 percent on year to 358,356. The country’s population has declined on net for five straight years.

The rebound appears to be more of a blip driven by multiple factors rather than the beginning of a long-term reversal, according to Ma Gang-rae, an urban planning and economy professor at Chung-Ang University.

“The surge in marriages, which were delayed during the pandemic, and the relatively lower real estate prices during late 2022 and early 2023 encouraged younger generations to get married,” said Ma, adding that such factors are likely temporary.

Korea’s rapid plunge in birthrates, which has been much steeper than those of other developed nations, was mainly due to the country’s excessively concentrated economic development on the greater Seoul area, according to Ma.

“Ever-escalating competition in Seoul has made the future more uncertain for younger generations, while other regions suffer with a decline in the youth population,” said the professor. The Korean word for “youth” refers to individuals in their 20s and 30s.

Kim Yun-tae, a public sociology professor at Korea University, also believes the rebound was too mild to reflect a notable reversal of the country's previous birth trend.

“The low quality of jobs at small and mid-sized enterprises, along with other labor issues related to job insecurity, is one of the most significant problems contributing to low birthrates,” said Kim, citing housing costs and the difficulties inherent to raising children as a working mother as major factors.

“The bigger social disparity within a society, the lower birthrates tend to be,” Kim noted.

BY SHIN HA-NEE [[email protected]]